Changing of the guardians ... and the guard

The Premier League season looks set to end as it begins, the changing of the guardians heralding a changing of the guard.

By predicting all change at the top — as a good many are — I don’t of course mean that, come May, the title will be going to Goodison Park or the Hawthorns or even, for that matter, a venue in North London. Let’s not be silly: the tectonic plates may have shifted since the end of last season, but not to the extent that the topography around the summit of English football is suddenly going to become unrecognisable.

So, in terms of the clubs contesting for silverware, we can expect the same familiar faces — it’s just that they’re likely to finish in a different order to last season. Not so much a revolution then, more a high-stakes version of musical chairs.

Not that we should complain: there is still a sense that this could be one of the most fascinating league campaigns in many years, a belief which owes everything to the genuinely seismic shifts which have taken place in various managers’ offices.

One can even argue that the most significant action of the 2013 season has already happened before a ball has been kicked.

Irrespective of whether or not he remains a power behind the throne, Alex Ferguson will still loom large in his absence during what one can only expect will be a challenging first season in charge for David Moyes at Old Trafford.

Perhaps only the appointment of Jose Mourinho at United could have vanquished Fergie’s ghost with something close to alacrity, and the fact that ‘The Special One’ has returned to Stamford Bridge is another big reason why, in my opinion, the champions will not be able to retain their title.

Their pre-season preparations haven’t been helped by the Wayne Rooney saga — a player they can ill-afford to lose and especially not to Chelsea — while the search for a replacement for Paul Scholes has yet to bear fruit. Add in an over-dependence on the fitness of Robin van Persie, and it all adds up to a picture of slippage at the top.

Given their experience with Ferguson, one trusts the club will back Moyes with all the time his six-year contract suggests. Whether the supporters are similarly patient if the going gets rough remains to be seen but, in plonking his backside into the hottest seat in English football, Moyes risks getting badly burned.

It might be different if he was inheriting a team of invincibles but, even in claiming the title last season — and against what was hardly the stiffest of competition — United rarely impressed above and beyond the basic requirement of accumulating enough points to get them comfortably over the line.

All of which suggests the transition at Old Trafford could be anything but seamless, with third place and Champions League qualification perhaps the height of the club’s ambition in the first year of the post-Ferguson era.

If United’s difficulty will have much to do with the loss of a defining personality Chelsea’s opportunity will owe an equal amount to the return of a leader of contrasting but no less compelling characteristics.

The homecoming of their ‘Special One’ should rejuvenate the old guard at the Bridge while, even if the style is somewhat more robust under Mourinho, in Juan Mata, Eden Hazard and Oscar, the Blues already possess the kind of class acts who would illuminate any team in the world.

Arguably the biggest threat to a Chelsea title-charge will come from within. I’ve noted before that the problem with Roman Abramovich is not that he doesn’t know anything about football but, rather, that he knows just enough about the game to think he knows it all.

Now that he and Mourinho appear to have kissed and made up — with the manager this week even talking up the happy family angle at the Bridge — it will be even more crucial to Chelsea’s chances of success that the owner has learned his biggest lesson in the game to date: the inestimable value of keeping out of the way and just letting his manager get on with it. We won’t be holding our breath, mind.

The same could be said to some extent of the changes at Manchester City where, in contrast to the hype and hoopla surrounding the managerial merry-go-round at Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge, Manuel Pellegrini has almost slipped in under the radar. But the Chilean comes from Spain with an impressive cv and an almost universally high standing among players as an inspiring man-manager and astute tactician.

City’s acquisition of flying winger Jesus Navas could prove to be one of the signings of the season, adding to an already formidably strong squad which, for all it has lost in individual quality with the departures of Balotelli and Tevez, it should gain in a certain unaccustomed serenity behind the scenes at the Etihad. Certainly, that’s what Pellegrini will be hoping for if he is not to experience his own version of the harsh verdict delivered to his predecessor Roberto Mancini — that even winning the title for the first time in 44 years can’t buy you a third chance under the club’s demanding owners. Still, second place and a decent run in the Champions League should see the Chilean safely installed for at least another year.

The contest for fourth place can be expected to be another all-North London affair. Gareth Bale’s anticipated departure from White Hart Lane would in itself be enough to tilt the balance in favour of Arsenal, if it wasn’t for the fact that, with the big kick-off now only hours away, we’re still awaiting the marquee signing the Gunners so badly need to give them the edge.

For Bale at Spurs (or not), read Suarez at Liverpool. The Reds, like Spurs, are by no means a one-man team – think Gerrard, Coutinho and Sturridge for starters — but they do share a dependence on a player of transcendent quality to make all the difference in tight games. In the absence of the Uruguayan – whether in the short or longer-term — Liverpool’s season could turn out to be a torrid one for Brendan Rodgers.

While most of the attention has been on Moyes stepping into Ferguson’s shoes, it can easily be forgotten that there’s another manager in the Premier League who is faced with the unenviable task of following in the foot-steps of a long-established Scottish gaffer.

Roberto Martinez will strive to imaginatively reshape Everton’s style of play but success in that endeavour will surely be dictated to a large extent by whether the club can retain the services of Marouane Fellani and Leighton Baines.

Elsewhere, West Brom could handsomely profit from the acquisition of the gifted Nicolas Anelka while Swansea can be expected to thrive again under Michael Laudrup in the league and, if the Europa League doesn’t actually prove a distraction, maybe even sample some continental glory too.

The promotion of Cardiff City will mean the return of the South Wales derby but bragging rights in that one might be the best the Bluebirds can hope for in what is likely to be a season of more lows than highs for all the promoted clubs. As manager of Crystal Palace, the wonderful Ian Holloway will be another welcome sight — and sound — in among the big guys, while it will also be good to see the strong Irish contingent at Hull getting regular action in the top-flight.

But it’s up at the top of the table where the biggest stories of the campaign will play out, for good or ill. One thing’s for sure: after the unprecedented twists and turns of the close-season, the 2013/14 Premier League looks set to keep everyone — but certain gaffers in particular — on the edge of their seats.