Italians lose grip on own destiny

Old habits die hard.

When Italy went out of the 2002 World Cup to South Korea after their attempts to hold a lead had been scuppered by an 88th-minute equaliser, the great British television commentator Barry Davies was moved to one of his fabled rants.

“Italy,” he said in a tone of voice somehow both avuncular and schoolmasterly, “are going out of this tournament because they will not learn.”

Last night they similarly gave up the initiative for no clear reason when seemingly in control and were punished by a 72nd-minute equaliser from Mario Mandzukic.

“We had chances to kill the game off in first half but we couldn’t put the ball in back of net,” said Andrea Pirlo.

“In the second half we dropped too deep and suffered a bit. Monday (against Ireland) is a must-win game but we can still get through.”

The outcome, though, is an awkward one for Italy. As in Euro 2004, they go into their final group game with two draws; back then they beat Bulgaria but went out anyway as Sweden and Denmark drew 2-2.

The fear must be something similar here; even victory over Ireland would not guarantee their progress.

Yet it had all started so well and had Mario Balotelli had a little more fortune in front of goal they might have had an insurmountable lead by half-time. Given Antonio Di Natale’s long-term knee injuries, it was highly unlikely he would be played from the start, but Cesare Prandelli had at least hinted that he had considered whether or not to leave out Balotelli so troubled was he by the way he dallied when presented with a one-on-one with Iker Casillas in the opening draw with Spain.

Miss added to miss. A turn and shot from Emanuele Giaccherini’s cross after three minutes that flashed just wide; a shot blocked from an Antonio Cassano cross after 11 minutes; a 20-yard drive from another Cassano pass after 16 minutes that flew straight at Stipe Pletikosa, the Croatia goalkeeper. The Manchester City man thrashed a long-range drive just wide and thumped another effort a fraction over. He looked frustrated at times, and was loudly booed when he was substituted after 70 minutes, but his goal will surely come.

It was Cassano, though, who was the more threatening. He may not be as dynamic as Balotelli, but there is greater composure to his play. It was his through-ball that placed Claudio Marchisio after 37 minutes to force a superb double save from Pletikosa.

The goal arrived in the 38th minute with Andrea Pirlo, excellent in his distribution, bending his free-kick inside the near post after Balotelli had been fouled on the left corner of the box. His was the first direct free-kick goal of the tournament, but there will surely be more: this Tango 12 is an excellent ball; players know where it is going and can control its swerve. That it is far, far superior to the Jabulani that blighted the World Cup and was apparent at the African Cup of Nations. In Angola in 2010, when a Jabulani was used, there were no goals direct from free-kicks; the Comequa used in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon this year was the same as the Tango 12 in all but the pattern on the outside and yielded five goals direct from free-kicks.

As Italy retreated and spoiled in the second half, Croatia began to dominate. There are two modes of Croatia: there is them at their best, as they were in 1998 and in the build-up to the Euros in 2008, when they play with pace and verve and imagination. And then there is the other variant, when the playmakers aren’t quite as good or aren’t quite on song, when they come to rely on their physicality.

Modric is an artist in any company, but his precision these days is deployed deep in midfield. There are those in Croatia who would rather he played in a more advanced role and that, in the end, was where Bilic moved him, behind Nikica Jelavic in a 4-2-3-1 after the introduction of Danijel Pranjic and shifting Mandzukic to the right with Rakitic falling back into Modric’s deep position.

It was a ploy that bore immediate fruit. Croatia had been predictable, physical, even boorish until then and had never looked like breaking Italy down; a case, as so often when Croatia are playing badly, of flares rather than flair on the pitch. But the change of shape brought inspiration. Pranjic created space for the full-back Ivan Strinic to cross from the left, Giorgio Chiellini was caught under the ball and Mandzukic had time to take the ball down before lashing it past Buffon via the inside of the post.

Italy looked weary by then — perhaps explaining why they dropped back, but Prandelli insisted he wasn’t concerned by his side’s physical condition. “Looking at the two games,” he said, “there is a notable drop in fitness level after 60 minutes; all we need to do is rest up.”

And hope Spain and Croatia don’t come to an agreement.

It was a draw that Croatia just about deserved; the oddity was that Italy so willingly allowed them back into the game.

Subs for Italy: Montolivo for Marchisio (63), Di Natale for Balotelli (70), Giovinco for Cassano (83).

Subs for Croatia: Pranjic for Perisic (67), Eduardo for Jelavic (83), Kranjcar for Mandzukic (90).

Referee: Howard Webb (England).