Weary lies the crown...

In May 2002, France were in much the same situation as Spain 2012. For one, they were undeniably among the greatest international sides of all time. Two, they were chasing history as the opportunity presented itself to become the first country to win three major trophies in a row. Three, their players were absolutely dominating the club game and, four, their youth system was the envy of Europe.

Until, suddenly, it all came to a halt. France didn’t win a third trophy. They didn’t even win a game and, in fact, went out at the first round of the 2002 World Cup.

There have been many reasons put forward for that failure, ranging from the simple to some surprisingly lurid rumours. But one of the most significant factors was undoubtedly fatigue. Indeed, France’s failure wasn’t sudden at all. They had been slowing for some time, with the state of the team seemingly personified by Zinedine Zidane. He was injured for the first two games before appearing a pale shadow of his usual self in the third, with his leg heavily bandaged.

In truth though, that tournament didn’t just mark a turning point for France. It was a fault line in football history.

The 2002 World Cup marked the first time that the international game was no longer the absolute pinnacle of the sport. By then, it was caught in the slipstream of the accelerating European club scene.

The expansion of the Champions League in 1999-2000, after all, had radically altered the dynamics... and the demands. The top clubs — ergo, top players — had to adjust a hugely increased number of more intense fixtures. And, while Euro 2000 largely escaped the effects of this, the 2002 World Cup’s major teams had seen three seasons of it. Little wonder that tournament — and Euro 2004 — saw so many surprises. With such a high quantity of elite players exhausted, it was easier for the lesser-quality sides to bridge the gap with some elementary organisation.

It’s a trend that’s continuing. Before the 2010 World Cup even started, the defending champions Italy were already complaining about the effect of conditioning work. With so many regular-season games having been played and so little time to improve the players’ fitness, the backroom staff put the squad under specialised programmes.

“Our legs are heavy from 15 days of intense training,” Alberto Gilardino said at the time. “We are not sharp.”

Unfortunately for Italy, that would also be the case for the tournament itself as they bowed out early as well.

And, similarly, it is understood Croatia are going to have to put Luka Modric under a specific conditioning regime before this tournament starts in order to overcome the effects of 51 matches over 2011-12.

There is, of course, one large caveat to all of this: Spain’s performances over the last two tournaments. Despite Barcelona’s dominance of both European football and the Spanish national team throughout that time, the latter have maintained a magnificent level. Certainly, lesser sides have found it much more difficult to bridge that gap.

But there are two key points to be made. Firstly, the Barca core as well as the country’s overall football infrastructure have fostered the kind of cohesion which is extremely rare at international level. Against that, organisation isn’t enough — regardless of energy levels.

That’s not to say Spain managed it all without some difficulty, however, as their series of 1-0 wins at the 2010 World Cup proved. Indeed, the second question is: has the Spanish team reached a tipping point?

Much like the French players in 2002, they’ve all been competing at too intense a level for far too long.

Think, after all, about the pressure on the Barca players. The exhilarating, exceptional nature of the early victories at Euro 2008 and over the 2008-09 domestic season created an inevitable expectation to then go and make more history. For Barca, it was repeat European Cups and doubles. For Spain, it was a first World Cup and now a first three-in-a-row.

While the mental toll is almost unimaginable, you only have to look at the stats. Over the last season, and over the last four years, Spain’s core have played more games than any other team. When you add it all up, they’ve almost crammed five seasons into everyone else’s four. And they’re beginning to feel it.

This month, Spain don’t just have their own version of a bandaged Zidane. They have several. Gone are Carles Puyol and David Villa. Also there’s an off-form Gerard Pique, an off-kilter Fernando Torres and, above all, Xavi.

The Barcelona metronome has played an average of 66 games per season since Euro 2008 — far more than anyone at the tournament. Little wonder Pep Guardiola was starting to bring him off early in so many recent games.

Ireland shouldn’t get too excited by this. Because, surprisingly, Giovanni Trapattoni’s core players are seventh on the list for appearances in 2011-12 and eighth overall. Clearly, there is some merit in the argument that the English game saps its players. Countries that have a large amount of players based in the Premier League — France, Sweden and, not least, England themselves — have also seen a little too much action.

The Germans, meanwhile, look rather healthy.

Fatigue will not be the decisive factor this summer. But, just like in 2002, it may well be a significant one.