Ireland’s draw full of eastern promise

SO yes, there is life after the World Cup and now we know what it looks like.

And none too daunting it is too, after the European Championship 2012 draw in Warsaw yesterday put Ireland in a group which is not only negotiable but, if we can allow ourselves to be optimistic for a change, downright winnable.

If anything, the outcome of the draw had something of the routine about it, especially when set against the sexier options of unfinished business against France, a renewal of ancient rivalry with England or even the moderate spice of coming up against former gaffer Brian Kerr and his Faroe Islands.

No matter. Giovanni Trapattoni always likes to say that if you want a show you should go to La Scala. Winning football matches is, in the Italian’s book, another matter altogether, and what was served up in the Palace of Culture yesterday is much more likely to fit that bill, thereby increasing Ireland’s chances of reaching their first finals in 10 years.

Indeed, some of the biggest challenges are likely to be geographical and logistical, depending in part on how the fixture list pans out – winter in Russia is never an ideal time to go east chasing points, for example, while an excursion to Armenia at any time of year will require in-depth planning by the green army.

From a purely football point of view, however, Group B is, on balance, just about as good as it could get for Trapattoni and company.

Drawing Russia as a top seed is certainly preferable to having to overcome the biggest guns, like European champions Spain, our recent friends Italy or always redoubtable Germany. The Russians blew red hot and icy cold at Euro ‘08, ultimately departing the tournament at the semi-final stage with a desperately poor showing against the Spanish. And there was more of the same in the qualifiers for the World Cup in South Africa, as they crashed out in the play-off against Slovenia.

In other words, even with the inspirational Guus Hiddink behind them, the Russians have shown a surprising vulnerability – and with a serious question mark hanging over the Dutchman’s future at the helm, things could get worse for them before they get better.

By contrast, second seeds Slovakia exceeded all expectations by qualifying automatically for South Africa, and how they fare on the highest stage this summer will tell Giovanni Trapattoni a lot more about what he can expect to face when the Euro qualifiers get under way in September.

But having beaten them at home and drawn with them away, even as Irish football’s stock was sinking to an all-time low under Steve Staunton, Ireland have recent enough experience of the Slovakians not to be unduly daunted by the prospect of meeting them again.

History will hang over the trip to Bratislava in another way, however, since that was the scene of one of the most celebrated virtual crimes in Irish football – the one still commemorated on the terraces with the enduring anthem, “Stephen Ireland’s two grannies, alive, alive-o”.

Rest assured that as the preparations for the next campaign gather speed, the subject – however flimsy – of the Cobh man’s own international resurrection will get another lively airing or two.

For different reasons, Macedonia is a name to send shivers down the Irish spine but their under-whelming World Cup campaign – despite a tradition of showing stern resistance in Skopje – suggests that, having finally laid the Cypriot ghost to rest, an Irish team coached by Trapattoni should have no real reason to fear history repeating itself.

In a group, barring Ireland, of all the ‘a’s, the two nations whose names both begin and end with that letter seem certain to occupy the x and y berths at close of play. Armenia may occasionally punch above their weight – as an admittedly struggling Belgium discovered when losing 2-1 in Yerevan during the World Cup qualifiers – but so long as the Irish keep complacency at bay, they should have more than enough about them to maintain their footing as they negotiate the group’s mandatory banana skin.

And then there’s little Andorra, as sure-fire a six-pointer for the opposition as European football has to offer. (As we used to say about, er, San Marino).

So, on paper then, there’s every reason to feel reasonably confident of Irish qualification for Poland and Ukraine, if not automatically, then via the play-offs. (And, lest we forget, since UEFA in their wisdom have already seeded the play-offs and, worse, handed the top seeds home advantage in the second play-off leg, the desirability of Ireland avoiding another death or glory qualifying climax is self-evident).

But, of course, what looks good on paper does not automatically transfer to grass. All predictions for the road ahead must carry the health warning that it’s a long way from here to journey’s start, never mind journey’s end.

For that reason, there are many imponderables, such as how Ireland will bed in at their new home, the Aviva Stadium on Lansdowne Road; how much more Trapattoni can get out of his old guard while seeking to inject new blood into the squad; the fitness or otherwise of Steven Reid; the return or otherwise of Andy Reid; and, yes, the availability or otherwise of Stephen Ireland. He might not have come back but he hasn’t gone away, you know.

But all we can go on, for now, is the most recent evidence – and that, for all the crushing disappointment and dismay at the result in Paris, was hugely encouraging.

The likes of Robbie Keane, Damien Duff, Richard Dunne, Shay Given and John O’Shea might all be a bit nearer the end of their own road, but they are not so far down it that they can’t provide the spine of a productive Irish challenge at the beginning of a new one.

And, now that we all know where we are going, we can sit back and enjoy the distraction of that little warm-up tournament in South Africa before the real business begins in eight months’ time.