Heineken Cup winners likely to come from France
With the 2013/14 Heineken Cup season only days away, Breakingnews.ie rugby correspondent, Daniel Pitcher takes a look at the weekend fixtures.
It’s the most wonderful time of year. This time of year to me ranks so much higher than the supposed Christmas cheer we are supposed to feel in December.
I have already had a look at the ERC’s struggles with Anglo-French teams off the pitch, it’s now time to put that aside for a moment and take a look at on-field matters.
Let’s take a look at the pools and fixtures first and then take each of the 12 games individually.
In Pool 1 we have Leinster, Ospreys, Castres and Northampton. The pool starts with Castres hosting Northampton at Stade Pierre Antonine, followed by Leinster’s trip to Ospreys at the Liberty Stadium.
There seems to be a rivalry building up between Castres and Northampton, having both played each other in last season’s pool 4. There is very little to separate the sides as they both took a home game each and ending up with the same win/loss record of three wins and three losses.
Castres, although they are a very experienced side, they haven’t had it all their way against English opposition over the years. In 18 times they have faced English sides, they only have five wins with 11 losses and with the Saints still eager to get back among the top sides in this competition, I would give them the slight edge here.
One of the Northampton players to watch will of course be George North. What a Lions tour he had and what will be remembered the most is the fireman carry on Israel Folau. This 21-year-old is one of the most impressive young players I have seen in a long time, to become the first Welsh player to win 20 caps while still in his teens is really something to behold. I am backing North to be ERC player of the season later on in the year for sure.
Christophe Samson is the only notable French international to pick out for Castres but there is plenty of experience between their number 8 and prop choices in Pedrie Wannenburg and Michael Cotzee.
Moving on then to Leinster and the Ospreys. What a psychological scalp from the Welsh team earlier in the Pro 12 season, coming to Dublin and leaving with a draw.
Dan Biggar is surely the man to beat on Saturday. The Swansea-born kicker has racked up a very impressive total of 75 points since the start of the season and has played 80 minutes in all but one game, the game in Edinburgh when he came off after the hour mark.
Even though the home side will have a lot of confidence from avoiding defeat at the hands of the Pro 12 Champions they, like Leinster, come into this game following a poor loss to Ulster that they really should have won at home. Leinster, as we know, also came up second best down in Munster for the first time since 2011.
It’s the very first meeting of the sides though in Heineken Cup and with this European competition being the main bread and butter for both clubs, perhaps we will see a more bruising encounter.
However with Leinster unbeaten in 11 matches in the competition against Welsh opposition, I would be leaning more towards Matt O’Connor’s side.
That of course depends on the team O’Connor has at his disposal though, Brian O’Driscoll has been labelled as 50-50 for the game and his selection depends on his ability to train tomorrow afternoon.
That wasn’t the only bad news the new Leinster coach has had this week, Lote Tuqiri who started at 13 against Munster, is injured himself and will miss the next few weeks. My guess is that Ian Madigan will slot into 13 with the fit-again Jimmy Gopperth partnering Isacc Boss in the half-back line.
Moving onto Pool 2 and I suppose there will be no prizes for guessing who will progress from here as pool winners.
Clearly as defending Heineken Cup Champions, Toulon have the edge on this one, they in my opinion are far superior to any of the other teams in the pool - Exeter Chiefs, Cardiff Blues and Glasgow Warriors.
All four sides are set for action on Sunday, with Exeter hosting Cardiff Blues at Sandy Park.
Hard to see where this one will be won and lost really, Exeter made their debut in the competition last season and picked up a double against Scarlets. Experience is the only thing Blues boast about that would see them winners.
You just can’t compare Gareth Steenson, Haydn Thomas or Neil Clark to the likes of Leigh Halfpenny, Alex Cuthbert or Rhys Patchell.
Then what is there to say about Toulon and Glasgow other than a very clear win for the Champions.
Onto Pool 3 then and back to Irish attention with Connacht and Pat Lam’s first go at Heineken Cup rugby.
With them, they have Saracens, Toulouse and Zebre. The only win I can honestly see the men from the West getting, is against the Italian outfit.
Blame it on their mounting injury list if you want, but Connacht have been on a huge losing streak as of late. In fact their only win in the Pro 12 this season came at home to Zebre, it’s hard for me to see how, unless there is a sudden miracle, Connacht will have any sort of decent tournament.
Their first outing is against English powerhouse Saracens in the Sportsground.
Pat Lam's side are the only club in the competition who have come up against six different English sides, however they have only one victory in those games and come up against Saracens for the very first time in the competition.
Perhaps 3 is a magic number for the province, three of their four wins in the competition came in pool 3 last season, on different form I would probably look further into it but they have failed this season so far to show they can be formidable in the tournament.
Watch out for Dan Parks and John Muldoon though, I would back Muldoon as one of the three captains to lead the side out in Galway.
With Saracens there is quality and experience littered all over their squad with Owen Farrell, Charlie Hodgson and Chris Ashton, only a small pick of players who are going to cause all sorts of problems.
It will also be a first meeting for Toulouse and Zebre at Stade Ernest Wallon on Friday night and straight off, I am predicting a whitewash.
The French giants have scored over 30 points in six of their last eight meetings against Italian opposition in the tournament.
The Italians lost all six of their pool matches last year so their recent Pro 12 win over Cardiff (their first ever win) is hard to get excited about.
The pool will no doubt come down to an interesting battle between Saracens and Toulouse and for my money I would just edge the English through as pool winners.
I think we have the pool of the competition right here and the overall winners may well come from this group.
Harlequins, Racing Metro, Clermont and Scarlets will all battle it out on the road to the Millennium Stadium and I can’t wait to follow the action.
Straight up Racing Metro vs Clermont and a perfect opportunity for Jonathan Sexton to show those who perhaps don’t follow Top 14 rugby that there is still plenty of fire power in his boot that has been trained by the kicking wizard, Ronan O’Gara.
Clermont will be hurting after they came so close to the glory they have been edging for year on year in the Heineken Cup, only to be beaten late on by Toulon.
It will be hard to look past Clermont again this season however they have only registered two wins in their last five games.
Racing have won just three of their last nine home matches in Heineken Cup with two of them coming last year.
We are in for an almighty battle and I feel if Sexton comes good to go, I’ll be putting my chips on Racing to edge it.
Then to Harlequins vs Scarlets at the Twickenham Stoop.
Quinn’s will be hurting from last season after Munster against all odds arrived and left with the golden ticket to the semi-final stage and I fully expect Conor O’Shea’s men to be up for this one.
The last meeting of these sides came in the 2008/09 season with Harlequins claiming two narrow victories.
Scarlets didn’t register a single victory last season.
The pool will be interesting, but I feel the power and experience of Clermont may see them advance as pool winners.
So nearly there now as we come to the last two pools.
This pool is interesting enough with Ulster, Leicester, Treviso and Montpellier.
Ulster as have been written about here before will be out to once and for all get rid of the nearly tag they have been carrying for so long.
Defeat to Leinster in the Heineken Cup final, two seasons ago was a bitter pill to swallow and rubbing salt to the would have been last season’s Pro 12 Grand final at the RDS with Leinster coming out on top again.
Home advantage at a sold out Ravenhill might be just what they need going into their first game with the Tigers on Friday night.
The two sides have met four times in Heineken Cup, each claiming two wins. Their last encounter came at Ravenhill in 2012 when the home side ran out very impressive 41-7 winners, their third largest margin of victory in the competition.
Ulster have also won 14 of their last 15 home Heineken Cup matches.
Paddy Jackson came good against Ospreys last weekend, which would have been perfect for his confidence after he took a hit in the media at the start of the season.
Andrew Trimble is starting to hit form too as is Paul Marshall.
I wouldn’t expect a four-try bonus point but I do fully expect Ulster to see the game out, which could send them on their way to decent season form.
The other game in that pool, sees Montpellier taking on Treviso. I have a strange suspicion that the Italians can mount a surprising challenge against all of the other teams in the pool.
They have been impressive so far in the Pro 12 with wins over Munster and Connacht to their names.
These two teams will be meeting for the very first time in this competition, indeed it is Montpellier’s first Heineken Cup match against an Italian side.
Last but by no means least, we have Munster’s Pool 6. Rob Penney’s men will come up against Edinburgh, Gloucester and Perpignan.
I think Munster are coming out of their ‘transition’ period quicker than people expect. This year clearly there is no Ronan O’Gara but Munster have shown that life goes on with a nice battle between Ian Keatley and JJ Hanrahan.
After their big win over Leinster last weekend, the red province head to Edinburgh. The sides met for the first time in the competition last season with Penney’s men collecting two bonus point victories.
The Scottish side have lost their last four Heineken Cup games against Irish provinces including a 22-19 defeat to Ulster in 2011/12.
Despite their vast experience in the Cup playing 130 matches, Munster’s two meetings last season were the first time they faced a side from Scotland in the competition.
The other game in the pool is the clash of Gloucester and Perpignan at Kingsholm. Both teams are back in the European cup after two year absences.
Munster will have keen eyes on that game with the possibility of a repeat of the 2003 miracle game in Thomond Park, when Gloucester go to Limerick again.
Munster have had some tight battles with Perpignan down the years too and I predict Irish eyes will be smiling by the end of this pool stage.
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