Fine margins should swing in Ireland’s favour today
Whether it has been in the Six Nations, a World Cup or even a pre-tournament warm-up, the last 10 years have seen these Celtic cousins fight for every inch with the scoreline every bit as narrow.
Even in last season’s match-up, when the Welsh, coached in Warren Gatland’s absence by Rob Howley, won by a healthy 22-9 in Cardiff, the contest was much tighter than the margin of victory suggested, as Irish captain Rory Best recalled yesterday, bringing back memories of his disallowed maul try and a late charge-down of a Johnny Sexton kick by Taulupe Faletau that let Jamie Roberts in to secure victory.
“There have been some really tough games,” the skipper said ahead of his 15th match against the Welsh, and one in which he will pass Paul O’Connell as Ireland’s third most capped player on 109 appearances.
“The game last year was a one-score game right up until the end. It looked a bit one-sided. The maul try that got penalised, it doesn’t matter now, but when you’re playing the top teams it’s down to fine margins.
"Last year we lost a couple of those through our own doing and also good play by Wales. We’ve got to win as many of those fine battles as we can tomorrow.”
It is a subject head coach Joe Schmidt warmed to the previous day when naming an Ireland team missing three British & Irish Lions tourists who had started the victory against Italy a fortnight ago which has placed his side at the top of the NatWest 6 Nations table after two rounds.
Two wins from two but the toughest challenge yet as Schmidt bids to take his team another step closer to a first title since 2015 and against a Wales side who have had Ireland’s number more often than not in recent years.
It is 2014 since Gatland last experienced a defeat to the Irish and he is the only head coach to have denied Schmidt a Six Nations victory in Dublin with the 2016 draw at the Aviva.
As Ireland wave goodbye to Robbie Henshaw, Tadhg Furlong, and Iain Henderson in addition to the previously sidelined Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip, Wales can welcome back Dan Biggar, Liam Williams, and Leigh Halfpenny, thereby adding to the size of the task facing Schmidt’s team and its rookie stand-ins Chris Farrell, Andrew Porter, and James Ryan in particular.
Referring to the same turning points in last season’s game that Best cited, the head coach said: “That’s how fine the margins are.
“I don’t think it’s too much different from any other game we play. The way they are playing at the moment, the way they are playing with (attack coach) Rob Howley with the width, and Dan Biggar coming in, a 60-cap veteran, with a real understanding of the game, I just think we have to be ready for whatever they throw at us.
"They’re going to vary the game up, they drive a lot of lineouts, so we’ve got to be ready for that.
“They play the ball in the air a lot because they have a lot of very good guys going after it, and they will also play with width.
"So what we’ve got to do is make sure we’re ready for whatever they throw at us and make sure we don’t give them too many access points to play in whatever way they choose.”
Schmidt referred to the problems of introducing new blood at short notice, as was the case in that oft-cited World Cup quarter-final defeat to Argentina in October 2015, when fly-half Johnny Sexton withdrew injured on the eve of the game and an under-prepared Ian Madigan was forced to steer Ireland through their biggest game in four years after just a light captain’s run training session at fly-half in a team also missing Paul O’Connell, Peter O’Mahony, Jared Payne and the suspended Sean O’Brien.
He is confident that Farrell, Porter and Ryan will be better prepared to avoid “getting spooked” as Schmidt put it and spreading indecision through the team.
“I think you try to get a training rhythm, you try to get into the game early... get an early touch. Having players around them who have been there before (is an asset).
"They know there’s going to be tough periods in the game and they know there’s going to be some opportunities created and when you get those opportunities you’ve got to put them away.”
There will be tension and moments when Wales will have the momentum swinging their way, which was why Schmidt wants the home support fully engaged and behind his men throughout.
“I’m pretty sure that the crowd will be vocal and will make a difference, and we’d probably just encourage them to make as much of a difference as they can to get behind the team. There are going to be tough moments and we’re going to have to really roll our sleeves up to keep them out at times.”
A game that seems destined to be determined by the roll of the dice, then, but home comforts see them loaded in Ireland’s favour.
Just.
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