Leinster up for it but Toulon have the edge

Looking back at Leinster’s 24-9 loss in Toulon last Sunday, it still seems remarkable to think the province remained so competitive throughout despite the fact their out-half was below par, they lost the penalty count 17-7 and three of their players visited the sinbin.

Jonathan Sexton’s form hasn’t been good enough for a while now, but this was a new low and one you would not expect to see repeated at the Aviva this afternoon.

Add in the long odds of them coughing up that many penalties or yellow cards again and the prospects of a morale-boosting win aren’t that bad.

For all their ills, Leinster disrupted Toulon’s lineout, they were solid in the scrum and heroic in defence and there is no reason why they cannot replicate much of the good they did at Stade Felix Mayol in front of 40,000 or so of their supporters.

Leo Cullen has made three changes in personnel, two of them because of injuries to Fergus McFadden (calf) and Isaac Boss (hamstring). Their places are taken by Dave Kearney and Eoin Reddan. Jack McGrath for Cian Healy at loosehead is the third alteration. With scrum-half Luke McGrath also injured it means a place on the bench – and a potential European debut – for young Nick McCarthy while Michael Bent covers for Jack McGrath in light of the continued uncertainty over Cian Healy’s suspension/availability after his appeal of a two-week ban.

Bernard Laporte has made just the one change less. Jocelina Suta replaces Samu Manoa at lock and Juan Smith takes over from Mamuka Gorgodze in the back row. With Juan Fernandez Lobbe and Sebastian Tillous-Borde both coming on to the bench, their resources are as scarily deep as ever.

Motivation will hardly lack either. Toulon were beaten out the gate by Wasps at the Ricoh Arena in their opening Champions Cup outing and can ill-afford another slip-up as they go in search of a fourth consecutive European title.

These back-to-back affairs can take on a micro-climate all of their own, but if Leinster can eliminate the spate of individual errors and clean up their discipline then they stand a decent chance of claiming a win that they left behind in France six days ago. The French giants were made look ordinary last weekend, just as they were last May when Leinster took them to extra-time in the Champions Cup semi-final in Marseille, though the suspicion is that they will once again have just too much for their Irish opponents.