Question marks dampen expectation

SO MANY variables, so many imponderables. The performances of the Irish provinces at the last time of asking, the return of Jonny Wilkinson and the selection of Andy Farrell are but some of the issues that have clouded the destiny of this year’s Six Nations championship.

With a level of experience and quality personnel unrivalled in this tournament, Ireland remain the logical choice in attempting to predict the potential champions when the tournament reaches a climax on St Patrick’s Day.

The appointment of Brian Ashton and the performances of Wasps, Gloucester and Leicester in round six of the Heineken Cup have increased speculation that England could emerge from their slumber as dark horses for ultimate success this year.

France being France are capable of anything from the sublime to the ridiculous, and Wales, if they could squeeze a victory over Ireland in the Millennium Stadium next Sunday, could go on to repeat the success of two years ago.

The only certainty at this stage is that Scotland and Italy will not be crowned champions. In a tournament condensed over seven weekends, momentum and a minimal injury list remain crucial. In that respect, Ireland start with a major advantage. With the exception of Shane Horgan, Eddie O’Sullivan is the envy of his rival coaches in selecting from a full- strength squad. Given the importance of vital personnel in John Hayes, Ronan O’Gara, Gordon D’Arcy and Brian O’Driscoll, that is key.

By way of comparison, Ireland’s first-up challengers, Wales, still have a cloud over the participation of first- choice, back-three players Shane Williams, Mark Jones and Gareth Thomas. Coupled with the loss of promising second rower, Ian Evans, and centres, Tom Shanklin and Sonny Parker, Wales have problems. Delaying the announcement of a team in the hope that certain players will pass fitness tests is fraught with danger. The outcome of Sunday’s game in Cardiff will have a major bearing on the championship.

The other two contenders, France and England, are difficult to assess at this juncture. France under Bernard Laporte have continuously under- utilised the quality of personnel available to them. There is so much talent on show weekly in the French championship that it is inexcusable for France to show the frailties that have become so apparent in their game.

Struggling for an out-half to replace the injured Freddie Michalak, France have erred in playing talented midfielder, Damien Traille, in the No . 10 slot in the last three internationals, but have opted for David Skrela to play against Italy this weekend, while Benoit Baby could be the long-term answer to French prayers.

England, with the potential of two successive opening victories against Scotland and Italy, will make life difficult for all opposition over the coming weeks. From the moment Martin Johnson lifted the William Webb Ellis Cup in Sydney more than three years ago,; English rugby has been in a state of decline. However, one suspects it may not be long before they return as a force on the world stage.

Injury and player burn-out continue to be an issue with the likes of Mark Cueto, Steve Thompson and exciting Bristol number eight, Ben Ward Smith, all unavailable. The shock return to arms of Wilkinson will undoubtedly be a massive boost to confidence, but with just 50 minutes of rugby in three months it is a big ask. Personally, I wish him all the luck he deserves. He is one of the gentlemen of the professional era.

Ireland, on the other hand, are very much in control of their own destiny. In some respects, their strength could also be a potential weakness. Fielding the most experienced and familiar line-up in the championship, this team is fast reaching its peak. That familiarity, however, presents opportunities for all opposition coaches in that they know exactly what Ireland have to offer. The “opposition analysis” video library on Irish players is full at this stage. Hence the requirement for O’Sullivan to continually evolve the way Ireland play the game.

In the autumn, the development of Ireland’s off-loading game was sensational, encapsulated in the opening 40 minutes, in atrocious conditions, against Australia. One hopes that was not Ireland at the summit of their powers.

Somehow, I don’t think so, and in many respects the blip in form displayed by Munster and Leinster in the recent Heineken Cup games may prove a blessing in disguise for O’Sullivan. All of a sudden the familiar doubts surrounding the scrum and new questions regarding the overall effectiveness of the forward unit have dampened the level of expectation.

Make no mistake, this plays into O’Sullivan’s hands. At the set-piece, Wales offer nothing like the threat that Leicester posed in Thomond Park. Their scrum is competent at best and the Jones boys and Gethin Jenkins like to run more than scrummage. Julian White just likes to scrummage.

In the absence of Ospreys rookie lock Evans, the Welsh second row is not as effective as the Paul O’Connell/Donncha O’Callaghan combination.

It is vital that Rory Best is in the groove with his throwing. The lineout will be crucial to the outcome of this game.

While a titanic battle is sure to develop between Peter Stringer and Ronan O’Gara against the equally competent Dwayne Peel and Stephen Jones, Ireland have a crucial advantage in terms of the quality centre pairing of Brian O’ Driscoll and Gordon D’Arcy.

By their nature, Wales choose to attack and, as a consequence, are unlikely to concentrate solely on closing down the potential that Ireland’s midfield offers, unlike the approach of other international sides. It could well be their undoing.

With the hype surrounding the fixtures against France and England in Croke Park, victory on Sunday would provide the launch pad necessary to enter a new home environment in a positive frame of mind. Defeat, on the other hand, will kill any ambitions of a second consecutive Triple Crown and a first Grand Slam since 1948.

It’s all to play for.