Timeform: Long Run not at top yet
Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old gelding was an emphatic winner of the William Hill King George VI Chase at the weekend, beating Riverside Theatre in second and hot-favourite Kauto Star in third.
Many pundits have suggested that the race signalled a changing of the guard; however Walker says that this is not totally borne out by the Timeform figures.
“They reflect it to a certain degree,” he stated.
“We’ve got Long Run running to a Timeform rating of 178 which is not as good as the likes of Denman, Kauto Star and Imperial Commander have put up at various stages over the last three or four seasons.
“Imperial Commander is on 182 at the moment, with Denman rated 179.
“At the moment that's the way we’d like it to be with the Gold Cup in mind. We feel that they’re more likely to finish ahead of Long Run over three and a quarter miles round such a stiff track as Cheltenham.
“However Long Run’s figure of 178 is that of a top-class chaser and there’s little doubt that, as only a six year old, he has still got scope for more improvement to come yet,” he added.
Nicky Henderson’s gelding has been at his best at the Berkshire venue, winning the Feltham Chase there as a novice as well as Saturday’s King George, however Walker is not so sure that the demands of Cheltenham will play to his strengths.
“He does look particularly well-suited to the demands of Kempton it has to be said. His jumping was much more assured than it has been at Cheltenham on his two visits there and we at Timeform have cast a little bit of a doubt as to whether he can actually run to that sort of figure if he returns to Cheltenham for the Gold Cup in March,” he said.
“There are just those few niggling doubts that remain about whether Long Run will remain as effective at Prestbury Park.”
Kauto Star was sent off the 4-7 favourite for Saturday’s showpiece, however the 11-year-old never looked at any stage like landing a fifth-straight King George.
“Kauto Star was a heck of a long way below his peak - in the region of 30lbs,” explains Walker.
“On the face of it, although there were no obvious excuses, that’s why we’ve pulled his rating down to 165 plus.
“It was along time ago that he ran to a rating of 191 - over 12 months ago in last year’s King George - and he hasn't really looked like putting up a performance worthy of that figure in the few starts that he has had since.
“We’re taking the view that it will require a fantastic training performance by Paul Nicholls to get this horse back to his imperious best in just two months.”
As well as training the winner Long Run, Nicky Henderson also saddled the second home Riverside Theatre, part owned by actor James Nesbitt.
“Riverside Theatre improved - we’ve got him improving in the region of 10lbs,” said Walker.
“He was rated 158p going into the race and he's now 167 which has him ahead of the likes of Nacarat, Planet Of Sound and Forpadydeplasterer were they to meet off level weights in the future.
“You can make excuses for the likes of Planet Of Sound who reportedly choked, and Forpadydeplasterer who returned clinically abnormal, but Riverside Theatre did put up a performance at least in the mid 160s on Saturday,” he concluded.
