High expectations: Team Ireland's best medal chances from Adeleke to Wiffen
Rhys McClenaghan during artistic gymnastics training at the Gymnastic Training Centre of Le Bourget ahead of the 2024 Paris Summer Olympic Games in Paris, France. Photo by Brendan Moran/Sportsfile
DECISIONS, decisions. Events will ultimately prove the folly of a piece like this. Remember how Ireland’s supposed ‘Super Sunday’ in Tokyo in 2023 brought the promise of four or five medal hopes and delivered none?
So, handle this crystal ball with care.
Team Ireland chef de mission Gavin Noble estimates that a nation needs three medal chances to take just one at an Olympic Games. The Gracenote Virtual Medal Table has predicted a return of nine.
So do Ireland go to Paris with 27 of these quivers in their bow?
The answer is an emphatic no, but they do have a spread of world-class athletes and teams that push well into double figures. It may be that they come home with half-a-dozen and match the record from London in 2012. Anything north of that would be sensational.
But how do you compare and contrast a lone boxer in the ring with a trio guiding horses over fences, or a rugby sevens side? You can’t, you shouldn’t, but we went ahead and did it anyway. Inevitably, some with strong cases fell the far side of this top ten.
Aifric Keogh and Fiona Murtagh, in rowing’s women’s pair, were among the nine picked out by Gracenote. They did, after all, finish a fine fourth at last year’s Worlds and took silver at the most World Cup events in Spain in April and Poland in June?
The men’s rugby sevens is another decent shout for something historic won twice on the last HSBC series circuit but they haven’t made this particular cut either. Neither have the likes of Ciara Mageean and taekwondo’s Jack Woolley.
It could be someone not even named here ends up on a podium.
Whatever happens, just don’t @ us, please.
No-one doubts the Tallaght 400m runner’s talents and potential but she wasn’t among the Gracenote nine and the brilliance of her exploits at the European Championships in Rome earlier this summer are no guarantee that more is to come so soon.
She said herself that her earlier relay exploits in Rome might have cost her legs some fuel down the stretch when taking silver behind Poland’s Natalia Kaczmarek and it is nigh on impossible to see her go in the mixed relay again at the Stade de France.
Sydney McLaughline-Levrone and Femke Bol seem to be concentrating on the 400m hurdles but Kaczmarek and Marileady Paulino – the latter a silver medallist in Tokyo – will still lead a hugely competitive field at the Stade de France.
VERY HIGH.
Bronze has been predicted for the Enniskerry women. Her own ambition sits two steps higher. Moorehouse was exceptional underage, but she was undone twice by questionable decisions in Olympic qualifiers before booking her spot at the last attempt in Thailand.
Those setbacks, at the European Games last summer and at the next qualifying opportunity in Milan earlier this year, hit hard. The 22-year old showed her mettle by nailing three superb performances to book her ticket at the last-chance qualifying saloon in Thailand.
A diminutive southpaw who stands under five-feet high, she overcame all that adversity and doubt, not least by earning that second shot in Milan by beating European gold medallist Shannon Sweeney in the Irish Elites last November.
HIGH.
The gold medallist at this weight in Tokyo three years ago, the Dubliner will take to the ring for what she has more or less admitted will be the last time in her career in the French capital with Gracenote predicting a silver medal.
Harrington admitted earlier this year to struggling for motivation at times in this cycle. Her loss to Nune Astrayan in the European Elites in April in her last fight was a first reversal in three years after 32 straight wins.
It’s been a year now since she sealed her Paris place and she is one of only three Irish fighters seeded in France. Third seed, to be precise, behind China’s Yang Wenlu and Brazil’s Beatrice Ferreira, who she beat to gold in 2021.
: VERY HIGH.
Another of those doubling up after an appearance in Tokyo, O’Rourke lost first time out in the 2021 Games but the Castlerea woman has progressed in leaps and bounds since and will be number two seed behind China’s Li Quan.
That’s the same Li Quan who beat O’Rourke in Tokyo before adding a silver to bronze in Rio. A three-time world medallist, she has was beaten by O’Rourke, a three-time European champion, in Strandja earlier this year.
O’Rourke qualified early when claiming gold at last year’s European Games in Poland. Younger sister Lisa won gold at the 2022 Worlds at light-middleweight but has been held back by injuries and won’t join her ringside.
: VERY HIGH.
The Newtownards man has six major gold medals between World, European and Commonwealth Games. He has known disappointment too and has spoken openly about mental health issues on the back of some of his struggles.
That second world title, sealed in Antwerp last autumn, booked his ticket to Paris and, while he has declared resolutely that a gold medal would not “fix” him, or make him a happy person, he will be going for gold again.
This is a man who has been nothing less than a trailblazer for Irish gymnastics and he will be aiming to do just that again this summer having finished seventh in his first Olympic final three years ago. A generational talent.
: VERY HIGH.
Gracenote has McIlroy down for a silver. The Holywood man has played some superb golf again this year but had a miserable Open Championship at Royal Troon last week where he missed the cut and spoke about the need for a holiday.
From his fear of the Zika virus in Rio to protestations over games of identity politics, he finally rocked up in Tokyo and only lost out on a bronze after a seven-way playoff when eliminated after three of the four extra holes.
Lowry was excellent for 62 of the 72 holes at Troon and is coming in off what he termed his best season on the PGA Tour. Only four Americans will be in Le Golf National and one of these two should be there or thereabouts. This is a huge opportunity.
HIGH.
Of all Ireland’s gold prospects, the Skibbereen pair are the smartest and safest bet. One slip for McClenaghan and his podium place could be gone, this pair would have to fall out of the boat to suffer a similar fate.
We say that in the knowledge that nothing is assured but retaining their title from Tokyo would be the furthest thing from a surprise, even if they spent much of this cycle rowing their own boats in and out of the water.
Yes they lost for the first time in four years at a World Cup in Lucerne last summer but another world title in Belgrade come September curbed any fears. That and the fact that O’Donovan hadn’t raced in a year before Lucerne.
O’Donovan could become the first Irish athlete to defend an Olympic title.
VERY HIGH.
Doyle went to Tokyo with Ronan Byrne as a fancied medal contender after a World Championship silver and finished tenth having returned to rowing on the back of an incredibly intense period working wards during Covid as part of his medical studies.
He returns now with “unfinished business” to take care of after that disappointment in 2021. A bronze at last year’s Worlds alongside Lynch serves notice of a crew that rows faster than the weight they concede to most would suggest.
Getting to that final will be job number one. Doyle spoke eloquently after each head-scratching performance in Tokyo but was always unable to put a finger on what was going wrong. Proof, were it needed, that nothing is guaranteed.
HIGH.
The team’s win at the prestigious Aachen Nations Cup event earlier this month confirmed a team on fine form and one standing top of the Longine’s world rankings with one event to come in October.
It isn’t just the three riders – Cian O’Connell on Maurice, Shane Sweetnam on James Kann Cruz and Daniel Coyle on Legacy - that are burning it up. Having the right horse is crucial and theirs are all superb animals for the job at hand.
It’s the strength in depth too. Not just travelling reserve Bertram Allen but another half-dozen behind that again. Ireland have been winning Nations Cups and Aga Khans of late. They could top all that in Versailles.
VERY HIGH.
: How good is this guy? How long have you got? Ireland has struggled to get swimmers to Olympic semi-finals, let alone finals. Wiffen is targeting two gold medals in Paris and has talked openly about setting world records sooner than later too.
He already holds the best ever time for the 800m freestyle over 25 metres. More importantly, he won gold at 800m and 1500m at the World Championships in Doha in February and is the European record holder over the first of those distances.
He won’t be short of competition here with the USA’s Bobby Finke looking to retain his 800 and 1500 titles while Sam Short of Australia will be another threat to the plans of a man who is also entered in the 400m and the open water swim in the Seine.
VERY HIGH x 2.
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