Maurice Brosnan: The numbers never tell the full story when it comes to All-Star selection

Maurice Brosnan examines the limits of statistics, the importance of defensive work and possible ways to improve the process

Mayo's Kobe McDonald and Kerry's Dylan Casey do battle. Pic: Tom O’Hanlon/Inpho

As referee Martin McNally prepared to throw in the ball to start the All-Ireland final, all eyes on Hill 16 turned to the two men standing head-to-head right in front of them. Kobe McDonald had met his minder for the afternoon: Dylan Casey.

Ninety seconds later, the first score of the game duly arrived. Casey found a pocket of space inside the 21m line and tapped over with his left foot. In a marquee showdown with a generational prospect, Casey struck first.

Now, whose fault was that score? Anyone’s? McDonald was diligently tracking Casey when he first broke from deep in his own half, but screeched to a stop on the halfway line like Wile E Coyote at the cliff edge, because he couldn’t afford to breach. Eoin McGreal was lurking nearby but had his back to the ball, such was his fixation on Paudie Clifford. 

Jordan Flynn picked up the run until Casey laid off, at which point he went ball-hunting. Casey kept going and Clifford picked him out for the opening point.

Should another Mayo player have stepped up to release McDonald so he could stay with his man? Should one of their other man-markers have slid across to the ball-carrier? Should Flynn have stayed with Casey once he took him on? And what does all of that mean for the All-Stars?

Mayo's Kobe McDonald and Kerry's Dylan Casey do battle. Pic: Tom O’Hanlon/Inpho

These are the fine determinations that make individual awards in a team game an imperfect science. They are also why any final selection is ultimately unsatisfactory. It is a judgement, not an equation.

Every year, there are familiar requests: more input from current players or managers, more data, more weight on the league and the early rounds of the championship. This is what happens when an entire organisation chases the same thing: the one thing.

Players want the one thing they need to lift them to another level or force their way into the starting 15. Managers want the one thing that will guarantee this year will be different. And journalists want the one thing that explains why one team won and another lost.

It is never about one thing. Games, seasons, careers: none of them is ever decided by a single element. A simple explanations makes for a nice story to tell, but the reality is that a mind-melting number of components feed in and all of them must be taken into consideration when making such assessments.

There is no perfect system. Part of the reason is that data collection in GAA is overwhelmingly skewed towards what happens in possession: kickout wins, scores, shots and assists. All of these are measured on the ball.

These numbers can and should inform. Context matters too. For example, Mayo’s leading assisters in the 2026 championship were tied three ways between Ryan O’Donoghue, Kobe McDonald and Jack Carney. Next was Sam Callinan, who created a total of 13 points. He also scored with the only two shots he took.

Mayo players Jack Coyne, left, and Paul Towey celebrate after the final win. Pic: Piaras Ó Mídheach/Sportsfile

How much of a factor is that for a man picked at corner-back? There are out-of-possession metrics: tackles, turnovers won. Some inter-county teams track breaches, a defensive metric that records when a defender is beaten by the man or the ball. All of those numbers are time-consuming to gather, not as widely understood or published and, frankly, less sexy.

There are also matchups to consider. How many times has it been said that Jack Coyne held his direct marker scoreless from play in his last four games?

The trouble with these comparisons is that you are weighing immense talents against each other. Just being in contention for an All-Star marks you out as a player of a certain calibre. Immediately, the argument is about degrees rather than levels.

So it demands re-watches and closer looks. Coyne started the All-Ireland final on Dylan Geaney, with McGreal on Paudie Clifford. But midway through the second half, McGreal and Geaney were both gone and Coyne was left tracking Clifford.

For Kerry’s last point of the game, Clifford gathered the ball outside the arc and sized up Coyne. He side-stepped twice and eventually slipped past him on the left to score. It doesn’t mean Coyne wasn’t deserving of an award or that he didn’t have a terrific season, obviously. It does call that stat into question.

Kerry's David Clifford picked up the player of the year award for the fourth time. Pic: Seb Daly/Sportsfile

The game has been revolutionised. It is weighted towards the attacker. Attackers are going to score and often defenders have to settle for bend, don’t break. Sometimes they have to call switches, or cover space or track other runners. These calls are rarely simple.

David McBrien struggled at midfield against Roscommon and had significant issues with Bobby McCaul against Monaghan. Louth’s Ciaran Downey kicked 0-4 directly off him. Yet so much of his role is about a collective structure: doubling up, or providing sweeper protection. He was a legitimate contender for Player of the Match in the decider. That is a lot to reconcile.

Should it be taken into consideration that so much of Matthew Whittaker’s season was spent playing through injury? What about Jordan Flynn’s industry in a centrefield that was, at times, under siege? Paudie Clifford played in eight championship games this year. He scored 0-13 across the final three games in Croke Park, 0-9 from play. Because of various impediments, his impact in earlier games against the likes of Cork, Donegal and Armagh was limited. How should one be weighed against the other?

None of this is to say the process can’t improve. For the Tailteann Cup Team of the Year, players and management submit their own selection to further inform the selectors. There could also be a stock-taking exercise during the championship itself to ensure early-season performances aren’t forgotten. The All-Star sponsors could commission one of the analysis providers, such as GAA Insights, to compile an independent data report that would be feed into deliberations, form a central part of online promotion and fuel the barstool deliberations that go on after the team is announced.

Individual tallies, collective duties, injury history, defining moments, form, fitness and the intangibles all play a part. There is no clean answer. Pretending there is does a disservice to all involved.

Maurice Brosnan is a member of the All-Stars selection committee.