Christy O'Connor: 'Home' is proving to be not so homely at all
When Edin Dzeko was interviewed after Inter Milan’s 2-0 win against AC Milan in the San Siro Stadium on Wednesday night, the veteran striker spoke about the dynamic of playing at home, but technically, playing away from home.
In the Derby della Madonnina, the home fans receive a much larger ticket allocation than the away crowd, which meant AC Milan had a much bigger following in the ground on Wednesday night. That scenario also dictates where the fans sit as both sides have different away sections in the ground. As the away team, Inter’s away fans tend to be placed in the Curva Sud (Blue) stand, which is where Dzeko and his team-mates did most of their celebrating after Wednesday’s victory.
“We will have more fans for the next match,” said Dzeko. “So hopefully they will give us more energy.”
That dynamic of county teams sharing one ground doesn’t exist in the GAA but the Waterford hurlers have had to get used to playing home games away. In 2018, they had to travel to Limerick and Thurles to play Tipperary and Cork in the round robin, before returning to Walsh Park in 2019 and 2022. When Walsh Park was being redeveloped this year, Thurles was chosen as Waterford’s home venue, which was seen as a far better fit for this team anyway than the tight confines of Walsh Park.
Waterford performed well in their first ‘home’ game in Thurles three weeks ago but they were still beaten by Limerick. In effect it was a neutral venue but, in theory, it wasn’t. The Limerick supporters outnumbered Waterford by at least 4:1. So what advantage was it to Waterford?
In the history of the round robin championship, there have been four ‘home’ games played outside of the home county and, each time, the home side has failed to win a match; Waterford against Tipp and Cork in 2018, Cork against Clare last year, and Waterford against Limerick this season.
Walsh Park was unsuitable in 2018, while Cork had to move to Thurles last year because of an Ed Sheeran concert in Páirc Uí Chaoimh. The redevelopment of Walsh Park has made Waterford’s challenge all the greater again now but this round robin, especially in Munster, has reflected the home teams’ struggles everywhere; in Munster, the home team has only managed to win one of the five games played.
That number is higher in Leinster, which is understandable considering the number of mismatches. But it has still only been 55%.
In this championship, every team is looking for inches everywhere, but home advantage hasn’t really provided it. On the other hand, how important is home advantage anymore? Is it as valuable as the perception deems it to be? The numbers suggest it isn’t.
In the opening season of the round robin in 2018, there were only five away wins in Munster and Leinster, which meant a 75% success rate for the home team.
However, the home team only won 40% of their games in 2019. Three draws added to the anomaly but those numbers plummeted even more in last year’s championship when the home team won just 36% of their games.
That number has increased to date this year but it’s still only 43%. That’s even lower again considering that four of the five home wins in Leinster were games where a defeat for the home side would have been considered a massive shock.
There have also been some notable reverse trends. Prior to 2019, Kilkenny had been unbeaten in championship in Nowlan Park for 70 years. Yet in their last three championship matches against top-nine opposition in Nowlan Park (Galway twice and Wexford), Kilkenny have failed to win. Wexford beat Kilkenny in a championship match in Nowlan Park for the first time ever last year. Kilkenny should have beaten Galway two weeks ago. But they didn’t.
So what has changed? Familiarity and routine is one obvious factor. Players have become more used to the round robin format now, unlike 2018 when everything was so new.
Just as importantly, young players have grown up now in that environment, especially since the provincial minor championships went to a round robin format in 2018. Even before that though, especially with the expansion of the minor championship, more and more games were being played in one team’s home pitch, as opposed to neutral venues in the past.
This week, the Clare and Wexford U20s defeated Tipperary and Kilkenny in provincial semi-finals in Thurles and Nowlan Park.
Teams and players no longer fear going into the opposition’s cauldron but the issue for Waterford now is that Thurles is not a cauldron for them, especially when Clare are so used to playing there. It has been even less of an advantage with the Waterford supporters staying away; the trip to Cork two weeks ago was shorter than Thurles but there was still a very small Waterford crowd in Páirc Uí Chaoimh.
Waterford are on the road again on Saturday, before having to go back to Thurles to play Tipperary in their final game in two weeks. They are well used to Thurles by now but while Waterford are technically away from home, they will still have to try and do something no team has managed before in the Munster round robin – win a ‘home’ game on the road.
When Dublin played Kildare in last year’s Leinster final, they had revenge on their minds, a deep desire for payback in their hearts. After losing to Kildare in the league in March, Dublin went out not just to beat Kildare, but to traumatise them.
Dublin ran in five goals inside 27 minutes. Their final tally of 5-17 was the joint highest ever scored in a Leinster final. Kildare knew that the storm would come early. They thought they were ready for it. But they weren’t.
Numbers and Dublin and Leinster titles mean very little at this stage but there is still always devil in the detail. Dublin have won their last ten provincial finals by an aggregate margin of 144 points.
The perception is that Dublin have accumulated most of those scores in the first half, when they have gone out to knock whatever optimism and hope the opposition have straight out of them. But the data tells a different story.
Last year’s final and the 2020 decider – when Dublin also led against Meath at half-time by 16 points – were outliers. In the other eight finals, Dublin’s average half-time lead was just a shade under 0-4. In the 2013 Leinster final, which Dublin eventually won by seven points, they trailed Meath by two at the break.
With the exception of those 2020 and 2022 finals, Dublin have done most of their damage after the break. Yet a handful of the Louth players also know what it’s like to experience the wrath of the Dubs early on in a Leinster final.
In the 2017 provincial minor final – Louth’s first in 46 years – Dublin won by 13 points but all the damage was done in the opening eight minutes, when Dublin led by 2-3 to 0-1. Leonard Grey, Daniel Corcoran, Alan Connor, Ciarán Keenan and Liam Jackson, who play for Louth in Sunday’s Leinster final, all lined out in that minor final.
They know full well what it’s like to experience that early Dublin whirlwind. Dublin will look to hit Louth hard and early on the scoreboard again now, but the numbers still show the importance of hanging in for as long as a team can. Because Dublin usually inflict most of their damage in the second half.
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