Tadhg Beirne must come into the reckoning for Ireland in Melbourne
While it wouldn’t have changed the outcome of the opening test, breaching a hitherto impregnable Australian defensive line would have been a confidence booster ahead of the trip to Melbourne.
Joe Schmidt made it clear before leaving home that this tour has a major role to play in his plans for next year’s World Cup. Indeed, he will have learned much from last weekend’s chastening experience.
Ireland hadn’t lost a game since March 2017 and this defeat has served as a sobering reminder of what happens when his side is unable to win the battle for the gainline.
Australia won the physical battle, controlled the momentum and dominated the aerial exchanges spectacularly. Ireland do not possess the same creative ability in broken play and, without that momentum, struggled to threaten the Australian try line.
With the World Cup in mind, Schmidt will also have taken stock of how Ireland’s potential quarter-final opponents, South Africa, now under the direction of former Munster coach Rassie Erasmus, managed to fight back from a disastrous opening quarter — when they trailed England by 24-3 — to win.
Schmidt will also have noted how Ireland’s Pool A opponents Japan beat Italy in Kyushu last weekend, scoring four tries in a great 34-17 win.
Irish rugby has enjoyed a spectacular season but these results just serve to highlight that current form is no barometer for what might happen in 15 months time, especially as the Springboks and Japan are likely to improve in that timeframe.
Right now Schmidt has enough on his plate, generating a positive response to Saturday’s defeat against a resurgent Wallaby side. By making so many changes from Ireland’s Grand Slam-winning team for that opening test, Schmidt gambled far more than had been envisioned prior to the tour. I wonder how much he regrets that now as he will undoubtedly be forced into making several changes for Saturday in order to keep the series alive.
The quality of the Wallaby performance caught many, including Schmidt and many of their detractors here, by surprise.
Anyone who watched the Queensland Reds play the Waratahs only two weeks ago, when they shared a 93-point scoring fest in a game of tip rugby, would have questioned the defensive appetite of many of the same Australian players. Tackling certainly proved an optional extra that night, with neither side taking the option.
The fact that the Wallabies put in a defensive masterclass against Ireland with so many of the same players on board as that Super Rugby derby is a major tribute to the Australian coaching group. They played like men transformed.
When you look at how professional the Irish coaching set-up is, I was amazed to discover that the main Wallaby assistant coaches, in legendary former out-half Stephen Larkham and centre, Nathan Grey, with responsibilities for attack and defense respectively, were only signed on a full-time basis this season.
Up to now they had been double jobbing with the Brumbies and the Waratahs when not on international duty. Now that they can concentrate solely on preparing the Wallabies, the benefits were there for all to see, with more one-on-one time with the individual players having the desired effect.
The big question now is, can they deliver the same intensity again next Saturday in Melbourne, and will Ireland be as accommodating? The attitude of the Wallaby players was born out of frustration and a determination to prove themselves, given all the negativity surrounding the game here at present.
Rugby union appears to be losing the battle to rugby league and Australian Rules for the hearts and minds of the public and, of even more importance, the battle for the participation of young players.
As a consequence, it is also struggling from a financial perspective.
The television rights deal for the NRL (rugby league) and the AFL (Australian rules) coverage in Australia amounts to Aus$1.8 billion (€1.16bn) and Aus$2.5billion (€1.61bn) respectively. The total package for the rugby union equivalent is about Aus$600 million (€387m).
That enables rugby league to chase the talented schoolboy and sign him up on a lucrative contract at a young age, keeping him at arms length from their union counterparts.
The fans attending Super Rugby has also fallen away dramatically, with the Sydney-based Waratahs average crowd of 15,000 now less than half of what it was only a few seasons ago. It’s even worse for the other Australian franchises.
Results on the pitch are of crucial importance to keep the sponsors on board, as the market for those sponsorship dollars is highly competitive between the various professional sports.
On the international front, the fans are also getting disillusioned with the regularity with which they play the same opposition.
With so many Irish now living and working here, Ireland, who played the Wallabies in Australia for the first time since 2010 on Saturday, are a novelty factor and the interest in the series is huge in comparison to the annual Rugby Championship games against New Zealand, South Africa, and Argentina.
That is why Suncorp Stadium was rocking last weekend and the demand for tickets for Melbourne is also huge.
While Ireland are certain to up their performance in the second test, it will be interesting to see if the Wallabies can reach the same emotional pitch. Their forwards competed better in the scrum than anticipated, even if their lineout remains suspect.
Michael Cheika’s decision to go for a 6/2 split of forwards and backs off the bench worked spectacularly, with his rookie front row replacements eking out the crucial scrum penalty that ultimately resulted in David Pocock’s match-clinching try.
Ireland’s bench failed to contribute in the same manner. Despite that, many of those will now be charged with starting this weekend.
Schmidt could make anything up to seven changes to his starting side. The front five will be completely remodeled, while Dan Leavy looks certain to be recalled to the back row.
Johnny Sexton and Garry Ringrose will also start, while Robbie Henshaw will be hoping that his familiarity and understanding with his Leinster midfield colleagues will get him the nod over Bundee Aki after a disappointing outing last weekend when both centre’s lack of recent game time left them off the pace.
The menacing poaching ability of the Wallaby back row could also result in a test debut for Tadhg Beirne given his turnover statistics for the Scarlets this season.
Despite playing the majority of his games in the second row, he broke the Guinness PRO12/14 record for turnovers on 36, with four rounds of action still to play.
Schmidt must now decide whether to start Beirne — he is a contender to slot in either the second or back row — or use him as an impact player off the bench. Given how effective Australia were at the breakdown last weekend, that ability to support the backrow would be welcomed by all.
That is just one of a number of areas Schmidt will be addressing this week. We await with interest to see the fruits of his labour in what promises to be a cracking rematch at AAMI Park.
With a limited capacity of only 30,050, space is likely to be at a premium — on and off the field.
