Still a risk Dustin Johnson’s mind will wander
It must be remembered that 87 years ago, the clearing of trees and the shaping of a golf course were not an exact science but in Augusta course, architect Alastair McKenzie and Jones have produced a jewel of stunning simplicity — a course that flows with the natural terrain of the ground while offering chances aplenty to those who are skilful enough to execute precision.
Augusta can lure the untrained eye into a false sense of comfort with its wide fairways and immaculate putting surfaces, but on further examination the real test comes from being able to strategically position your ball into the correct areas of the fairway so you can attack pin positions stubbornly defended by heavy contours, run-offs and water.
This week Dustin Johnson arrives at Augusta National fresh off three victories in a row.
With his newly-attained status as world number one, Johnson is finally beginning to ‘deliver’ on his unquestionable talent in a manner that suggests that if his focus his right he can secure a first Masters title.
That said, over the past five years we have already seen this level of domination from Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and Jason Day.
So perhaps we should wait and see if this is just another cycle — a great player playing marginally better than those around him.
For a man used to overpowering courses with his length and accuracy, Johnson’s playing pedigree at Augusta is poor. Tied-sixth and fourth over the past two years are his best finishes and even though he is heading in the right direction, I still see Augusta National posing too many problems for his game.
I see three areas of concern for DJ:
1. Risk-reward balance on the par five holes. Johnson has the power to reach all of the par five holes easily but his propensity to hit his driver all the time — especially on holes like the 13th at Augusta — could force him into errors, as the pinch points for his tee shots become too narrow.
2. His pitching. While it has improved immeasurably over the last couple of years, Augusta poses huge challenges when pitching from the sloping fairways and around heavily contoured greens.
While possessing great imagination, Johnson doesn’t appear to have enough in his short game arsenal to compete with the other favourites like Spieth this week.
3. His concentration. Given his ability, Johnson is still prone to lapses in concentration which will be severely punished at Augusta as it consistently demands accuracy on shot selection.
Bearing this in mind, I took a statistical look at some of the other players who may just force their way into contention.
Jordan Spieth
The bookies’ favourite, Spieth is trying to make amends for his spectacular collapse last year when in a winning position on the back nine of the final round.
With a win and two runner-ups in three visits, Spieth has proven credentials but he will need to find more accuracy off the tee box (117th best) and especially more form around the greens (49th) and on the putting greens (35th).
On the plus side, he is currently ranked first in greens in regulation percentage which is a huge asset but Augusta National is no ordinary course and a ball out of position is almost impossible to get close to the hole.
To win this week, Spieth is going to need to have season best performances off the tee as well as on the greens.
Rory McIlroy
Given his prowess as a ball striker, Rory McIlroy will never be too far away, but the old adage ‘drive for show and putt for dough’ counts every time.
Augusta very much suits Rory’s eye, yet aside from 2011, he has never really been very competitive — but I see signs of encouragement this year.
In order to complete his ‘Grand Slam’, McIlroy needs to come out of the blocks fast.
He needs to be very close to the leaders after 36 holes — something he hasn’t been able to achieve in recent years.
On form, he is a formidable frontrunner, but once again I fear his recent injuries mean he is not competitively sharp enough.
Right now, McIlroy’s accuracy off the tee is worrying but of greater concern is his pitching (especially his distance control), his scrambling around the greens (179th) and his putting (112th).
McIlroy has the ability to control his emotions very well but Augusta frustrates like no other course and lapses in concentration have often proven fatal to McIlroy’s hopes in major championships, so to win this week we need to see a positive McIlroy being in the top 20 for both his approach shots from 120 yards in and in overall putting.
Phil Mickelson
As a three-time Masters champion, Mickelson knows exactly what he needs to do to win this week.
Although the Tour is now dominated by younger players, Mickelson still has the ability so stay competitive right to the very end on one of his favourite courses.
He must improve his accuracy off both off the tee and to the green. He cannot afford to give away a big lead so expect him to throw caution out the door once again as the Masters and the Open championship now represent his best bets in terms of winning more majors.
Justin Thomas
Justin Thomas never gets as much credit as he deserves for his stellar play on the Tour. As one of its most consistent players, Thomas must now start transforming that consistency into major championships.
Already a multiple winner this year, Thomas’s game is ideally suited to Augusta and having already made several trips to the course to play with club member Jeff Knox in order to understand the greens and get more comfortable with his course management, his intentions are clear.
And so, as the week rolls in, it’s now all or nothing as no-one will really remember who finishes second. Playing for a place in history can be a daunting task but that is why Masters week makes for such enjoyable viewing.
