Will the unavailables now rue missing Ireland's tour to South Africa?
Given Schmidt has already confirmed he will decide on his future as Ireland head coach beyond next season when he returns from South Africa, the next three weeks is sure to flip that crucial decision one way or the other.
The IRFU’s performance director David Nucifora has already confirmed Schmidt’s replacement is already in the Irish system which presumably means Pat Lam, Andy Farrell and perhaps Less Kiss form that particular short-list.
The deserved goodwill and positivity to emerge from the heroics Connacht have achieved — and the manner with in they achieved it — suggests if Schmidt choose to step down, the sense of loss within the broader Irish rugby community may not be as badly felt as some would have imagined only 12 months ago after Schmidt had led Ireland to back-to-back Six Nations Championships.
If Schmidt was told at the commencement of this season’s championship only 19 of his first choice World Cup squad would make it to South Africa for the demanding three-test series, I am sure he would have been properly concerned given only one of that squad, his captain Paul O’Connell, has retired.
To lose key personnel like Tommy Bowe, Simon Zebo, Cian Healy, Sean O’Brien and Nathan White was a blow but at least he was aware of that well in advance of finalising the 32 man squad for the battle against the Springboks.
To lose Luke Fitzgerald, Dave and Rob Kearney after the party had assembled for the trip was an even bigger blow, but all those would have been paled compared to the loss of his commander-in-chief, Johnny Sexton.
Schmidt has never really shown any great trust in Paddy Jackson and having omitted Ian Madigan from his original tour party, he must now set about convincing both they play a crucial part not only in this upcoming series but in Ireland’s future. With Madigan already marginalised by his decision to decamp to Bordeaux next season that is going to be difficult.
Schmidt has much to occupy his mind at present, not least how he is going to integrate the seven Connacht players in the party who have been used to an entirely different game plan to the one favoured by him all season.
Primarily a kick and carry strategy encompassing a series of mini rucks geared to tie in opposition numbers, the problem is that Schmidt’s system exacts a massive physical toll, one that has resulted in such a high casualty list.
Implementing that system against the physical South Africans could be a recipe for disaster, so will he now look to tweak things and play in the wider channels as Connacht have done so successfully all season. We will be far wiser on that front after the opening test in Newlands next Saturday.
A big area of concern throughout the Six Nations was the vulnerability of the Irish system when defending those wide channels. A contributory factor was, with Les Kiss having departed for pastures new in Ulster, Ireland were without a dedicated defensive coach for that entire campaign.
Even allowing for the fact he couldn’t take up his role until after the Six Nations, the appointment of Andy Farrell appeared a good call by the IRFU, one worth waiting for. The response from the players since he has formally come on board in April has been very positive but with Sexton now absent, Farrell has also lost a key ally and someone who fully understood his approach and methods since they worked closely together on the Lions tour to Australia three years ago.
Despite the doom and gloom that has accompanied the withdrawal of so many key players, I think the dynamics of the tour have now changed for the better. With so many promising young players now on board, it becomes more of an investment in the future.
Rob Kearney’s protracted back problems meant he looked decidedly short on match fitness in the Guinness Pro12 final against Connacht and he will be far better served by a full summer off.
It also presents Schmidt with the opportunity to opt for a more potent counter-attacking threat from full-back by switching either Jared Payne or Robbie Henshaw or drafting in Tiernan O’Halloran who has looked electric for Connacht this season. Is he good enough to transport that form into the international arena? If Schmidt hasn’t found that out by the time he returns home then it will have been an opportunity lost.
While there has been much focus on the many problems impacting on Ireland’s capacity to win a test match against the Springboks in South Africa for the first time ever, it isn’t as if the hosts are in a great place at the moment either.
All things being equal, the new Munster appointment, Rassie Erasmus, should have been a shoo-in as South Africa’s new head coach once Heyneke Mayer stepped down after the World Cup.
Things don’t work that way in South African rugby however and Mayer’s successor, Allister Coetzee, has got the nod for different reasons.
He has to appease a very demanding South African rugby public who will have no interest in the fact the new coach has lost some of the greatest players to ever don a Springbok jersey — Victor Matfield, Fourie du Preez, Jannie and Bismark du Plessis, Schalk Burger, Bryan Habana and their captain Jean de Villiers — since the World Cup.
South Africa have only lost three homes test series in their entire history, two against the Lions in 1974 and 1997 and one the previous year against the All Blacks. In effect New Zealand is the only country to have won a series there.
Even fully locked and loaded, Ireland would struggle to win two out of three tests so winning one must become the immediate goal. That said there is far more to play for in this series as the likes of O’Halloran, Jackson, Stuart Olding, Matt Healy, Luke Marshall and Sean Reidy must seize the moment to prove that they have something positive to offer Ireland in the test arena in the years to come.
The likes of Ultan Dillane, CJ Stander and, to a lesser degree, Finlay Bealham have already proved that since the shattering World Cup defeat to Argentina. The big question now is who is going to cause some of our more seasoned internationals to rue the fact that, by missing this tour, they have opened the door to a rising new star.
That may also serve to convince Schmidt to hang around until the next World Cup in 2019.
