England’s hungry pack presents massive threat to Ireland tomorrow
You don’t need to be a genius to work out how a meeting of the England forwards would have gone this week.
Harlequins, Wasps, Leicester Tigers and Saracens all faced Irish opposition in the Champions Cup this season and in the majority of those clashes, came out on top up front, especially in the scrum battles.
Of 13 England forwards starting or on bench duty — 10, Nick Easter, Chris Robshaw, Joe Marler, Billy and Maka Vunipola, George Kruis, James Haskell, Tom Youngs, Dan Cole and Tom Croft — enjoyed successes against the men they face tomorrow.
Munster, Leinster and Ulster were all on the receiving end of those lessons and the confidence banked from such occasions should stand to England.
Joe Marler enjoyed a significant advantage over Mike Ross in the back-to-back games against Leinster and if your tight head is struggling, the entire scrum is destabilised. Leinster were without Cian Healy for those games but Jack McGrath and Sean Cronin were both on board in those contests.
Marler looked set for the Saxons’ squad after Alex Corbisiero and Maka Vunipola enjoyed successful Lions tours to Australia in 2013.
While injury has curtailed Corbisiero’s international career since, he has been back in Northampton colours in recent months but has failed to dislodge Marler, who has been outstanding this season.
Saracens also enjoyed a measure of success at scrum time against Munster at Allianz Park and regardless of the personnel involved, there will be a mindset within the England pack that they can dominate.
That stance will have been reinforced by the manner with which their fourth choice forward unit, in the guise of the Saxons, dominated an Irish Wolfhounds pack containing four forwards on duty tomorrow.
England’s resources are such that none of the 13 forwards who featured in Cork make their match day squad. They also have more ball carriers than Ireland, and that could prove decisive.
The choke tackle may be a great way of killing opposition momentum and generating turnovers but the net result, a put-in to an Irish scrum, will present an opportunity the England forwards will face with relish.
Ireland may need to pick their moments carefully when employing that particular manoeuvre and curtail the pursuance of the choke in favour of the chop.
Stuart Lancaster may have missed a trick by not strengthening his bench with the inclusion of fit-again Courtney Lawes and Tom Wood, retaining Easter as second-row cover.
He is not a second row and Lancaster may regret that call as this contest looks set to go the distance.
While Joe Schmidt is always capable of pulling a rabbit from the hat, England will know exactly what to expect from Ireland tomorrow.
Ireland’s pressure-kicking game has been executed with such precision and accuracy over the last 12 months that the influence exerted from the boot of Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton is unlikely to change any time soon.
While New Zealand are famed for their ability to offload in traffic and attack from deep, they also kick more than most international sides. Ireland are now emulating that approach with the boot and in a team crammed with players who excel in the air, why not?
Ireland’s game is based on keeping teams pinned into their own half.
Murray and Sexton create massive hang time on the ball which enables the likes of Bowe, Zebo, Henshaw and Kearney to either retrieve in the air or force the recipient into touch, thus delivering an Irish line-out. Either that or they tackle the receiver and manufacture a penalty or turnover.
England know exactly what is coming but will they be able to cope? The loss of Mike Brown, who is outstanding in the air, is therefore a massive blow.
At least his replacement Alex Goode has a similar skillset though he does not boast Brown’s counter-attacking class.
He will need massive support from his two wingers, one of whom, Jack Nowell, has been drafted in specifically to cope with Ireland’s kicking threat. Its always a plus when the opposition are forced into making a change to cope with your strengths.
First option for England is to stop Ireland at source, by applying relentless pressure on Murray.
England are adept at slowing opposition ball at the breakdown. Both Attwood and Kruis have made an art form of using long levers to heap pressure on the kicking game of the opposition scrum half. Expect at least one block-down.
While England hope that Ireland will have a lot of restarts, as that means they are registering points, they will surely be alert to how successful Ireland were in regaining possession against France. Bowe was targeted spectacularly by Sexton but I expect Schmidt will have a few options up his sleeve.
Given that both sides place a priority on pinning the opposition back in their own half, the quest for territory will be significant. Ireland’s kicking game holds a distinct edge in that key contest.
Only four tries have been scored in the last three games between Ireland and England.
What does that tell us? If anything Ireland were more inventive team in those encounters but came out on the losing side in all three games.
Ironically the coin has been flipped somewhat now with Jonathan Joseph, George Ford and Andrew Watson all adding to England’s attacking prowess while Ireland find it increasingly difficult to register line breaks, offloads and consequently tries.
England have registered eight in the tournament but Ireland have just two. That has to be a concern for the management team.
England were guilty of slow starts against Wales, when they went 10 points down in as many minutes, and against Italy at Twickenham, conceding a try after five minutes.
Ireland must seek to exploit that and not allow a comparatively inexperienced side the chance to ease themselves into the contest.
With England expecting an aerial bombardment, is this the time for Ireland to loosen the shackles and run? Ireland’s kicking game will force the visiting back three into standing deep so space will be available in the five-metre tram lines and directly behind their midfield.
Goode will have no choice but to stand deep and that presents opportunity to chip and run.
With Sexton, Henshaw and Payne having had more time to gain familiarity, the time is right for Sexton to launch those loop strike plays that yielded so much for Leinster and Ireland in the past.
Attack England where they may not be expecting it.
If it comes down to a penalty shoot-out between Sexton and Ford, it is advantage Ireland. Ford has a history of missing vital kicks even if he did slot a key one against Wales at the death recently.
It may take a spark of genius to win this one. Who is prepared to grasp the nettle and deliver something special tomorrow — Bowe, Kearney, Zebo, Henshaw? One moment of magic is all it takes.
