Time for another Munster rugby miracle
With just one away game remaining on their schedule — against Sale in round five — at this stage they appear certain to advance to the first ever knockout phase of the Champions Cup.
The big question now is whether a second side can progress from that pool and, if so, will it be Munster or Saracens? With two home games on the trot for Saracens against Sale next Saturday and Munster in January, Mark McCall’s men look better placed. Munster need to get something out of their trip to France next weekend, while it would also help their cause no end if Sale managed to turn Saracens over, even if that appears unlikely.
We are now seeing the effects of a revamped European tournament with little or no wriggle room. From the moment three of last seasons four Heineken Cup semi-finalists were drawn together in Pool 1, progressing to the last eight from there would match anything Munster ever achieved in making it that far in the old Heineken Cup format.
I always felt the best chance Munster had of advancing was as one of the three best runners-up slots and that still stands. Saracens are no world beaters and look a more realistic target for a win on the road than the trip to the Auvergne next weekend. Somehow, Munster must find a way to remain in contention by the time Sale arrive in Limerick in round six.
In times past, Munster had the luxury of rescuing the pain of a crushing defeat by retreating to Thomond Park to seek redemption. Not so on his occasion with the infinitely more daunting task of having to right the wrongs of last weekend in one of the most difficult venues in French rugby. Next Sunday’s challenging rematch offers an entirely different set of circumstances and could go one of two ways.
Clermont, buoyed by that magnificent performance last Saturday, may well decide they have the measure of this Munster outfit and go for the jugular. In the second-half last weekend they ceded both territory and possession to Munster, but backed their defensive capabilities and their physicality at the breakdown.
Playing at home in front of one of the most passionate and knowledgeable audiences on the French club scene, they will be encouraged to kick less than last Saturday, retain possession and play a ball in hand game. We saw brief glimpses of what their back line was capable of in Thomond Park and if they decide to cut loose, Munster could be in for a long day.
On the other hand, on the four occasions I’ve visited the magnificent Stade Marcel Michelin since 2008, both Munster and Leinster each twice came away with a precious bonus point by losing by seven or fewer points. Munster players always seem to perform better with a fear factor of a pummelling hanging over their heads and make no mistake, they have every reason to be fearful this weekend.
The first thing they need to address is their penchant for allowing teams build a score in the opening half of these tense encounters. In their three Champions Cup encounters to date, Munster have conceded 42 points in the first-half compared to a paltry six over the second 40 minutes.
Managing to keep Clermont scoreless in the second period last Saturday is something they must build on. Even against Ulster in their last Guinness Pro12 game at Thomond Park, they allowed the northerners’ sprint into a 12-point lead due to the concession of silly penalties. If they offer Clermont a start like that next Sunday they might as well stay at home.
Munster’s unblemished record against all French comers to Ireland had to go at some stage and there is no disgrace in losing to a side of Clermont’s class and stature. The departure of Vern Cotter, who, it must be said has made an impressive start to his tenure as Scotland’s new head coach, has also ushered in a new era for the French club.
They already appear more structured and resilient under the coaching ticket of Cotter’s former assistant Frank Azema and Jonno Gibbs. The experience Gibbs has brought on board from his multiple successes at Leinster is also bearing fruit as is his practical New Zealand rugby brain.
Only minutes after their groundbreaking win in Limerick, Gibbs was referencing how Leinster had hammered Northampton 40-7 at Franklins Gardens last season before losing 18-9 to the Saints at the Aviva Stadium the following week. He will be driving that message home all week in the knowledge Munster will not be prepared to lie down for anyone, regardless of where they are playing.
Leinster coach Matt O’Connor went on the offensive in the week leading up to their visit to the Stoop.
Stung by the criticism that has followed Leinster’s performances, he had enough. If it was designed to rock his team out of the slumber they have found themselves in, it didn’t work.
O’Connor is a good guy but finds himself in the unfortunate situation of following Joe Schmidt into the hot seat in Leinster. Schmidt delivered four trophies in his three seasons with Leinster but also had his side playing with the type of flair and attacking wizardry that we associated with Toulouse at their best.
Despite delivering the Rabo Pro12 title in his first season at the helm, O’Connor along with Jimmy Gopperth have become easy targets for the Leinster following. Easier to pick on the outsiders than those closer to home.
Gopperth was one of Leinster’s better performers against Harlequins and had there been adequate support for his two searing line breaks, Leinster may have scored the try that has now alluded them in their last two Champions Cup outings along with their most recent Guinness Pro 12 outing against the Ospreys at the RDS.
When reviewing last Sunday’s defeat to Harlequins, the inquest must start first and foremost on the performance of the Leinster pack. All eight were Irish internationals, seven having started at least one of Ireland’s autumn tests. Yet their scrum was under constant pressure which resulted in a number of confidence-boosting penalties for the hosts while their lineout also came under pressure.
The biggest deficiency since the departure of Schmidt has been the quality of Leinster’s passing. Under the new Irish coach, Leinster targeted becoming the best passing team in Europe, a challenge they mastered en route to winning back to back Heineken Cups in 2011 and 2012.
Despite the set piece problems encountered up front, had their passing and decision-making on the ball been anywhere near the standard set a few seasons ago, Leinster would have won last Sunday’s contest hands down.
With the likelihood that Harlequins will be forced to start without the highly influential Nick Evans and possibly their dominant loose head Joe Marler in Dublin, I expect Leinster to reverse last weekend’s result.
As for Munster, I would grasp at the prospect of securing a third losing bonus point from as many visits to the Massif Central. Given the quality of this Clermont side, that would be an achievement in itself.
