Should Schmidt rest Johnny against Italy?
Losing to England is always hard to take, especially in a game so finally balanced as last Saturday’s affair. Yet this Ireland team is still in a good place as far as championship honours are concerned.
With 10 minutes remaining, South African referee Craig Joubert ignored a few blatant indiscretions from England within metres of their try line with Ireland pressing hard.
Ireland should have had a penalty, at the very least, and a chance to draw the game.
It is all conjecture, of course, given that Joubert missed two blatant English indiscretions for coming in at the side of the maul and for use of a hand in a retreating scrum. That said, England were good value for their win and should have done so by a wider margin, having left at least two tries behind them.
For the Ireland players and management, there is no point dwelling on what might have been.
Should Ireland go on to win the tournament — and I think the odds are stacked in their favour — the English will look back ruefully on their opening day defeat to France in Paris when they were pipped at the post by a brilliant try from French super sub Gael Fickou. Such is the nature of sport, and this tournament in particular.
I have never seen England coach Stuart Lancaster as animated after a game as last Saturday. After that defeat in Paris, he knew it would be a major setback to his 2015 World Cup programme if they lost to Ireland at home.
The fact that his side clawed their way back into the contest after being blown away by Ireland in that crucial period after half-time will stand to his young charges.
The more pertinent question from an Irish perspective is where does this defeat leave Joe Schmidt? While it is disappointing that a Grand Slam that could well have been Ireland’s is no longer on the table, I don’t see Saturday’s defeat as anything other than a minor setback. Declan Kidney won a Grand Slam in his first season in charge but the team failed to build on that success and left a potential World Cup semi-final behind them.
Had Schmidt delivered a Grand Slam at the first time of asking, who is to say the same thing wouldn’t happen?
Remember, England under Clive Woodward and the number of times they were deprived of a Grand Slam on the final day of asking against Wales, Scotland and Ireland over successive seasons?
It didn’t do them any harm in their long-term quest for World Cup success. If anything, it just made them hungrier and more determined.
That 2015 event comes into sharp focus for Schmidt as, with a very favourable draw, I can see Ireland under the New Zealander’s shrewd guidance, making up for the disappointment of 2011 and reaching the last four for the first time. Should Ireland top their pool in that event, they would most probably avoid New Zealand and South Africa until the final.
Qualify as pool runner-up, however, and they face a quarter-final date with the All Blacks. I’d prefer to take my chances against them in a final. The relevance of that World Cup draw right now? Ireland’s main rivals in that pool just happen to be Italy and France, our next two opponents. That is why the team needs to start putting down markers against those two right now.
Our last two Six Nations’ outings against the French both finished in a draw.
French rugby is in disarray at present and Ireland must capitalise on that by winning at the Stade de France next month for the first time since 2000.
Wesley Fofana is a major doubt for that game with a rib injury and France’s most potent ball carrier and best forward, Louis Picamoles has been omitted from the squad for the game against Scotland by Philippe Saint-Andre for showing a lack of respect to referee Alain Roland.
If Picamoles is still left out for the Irish game, former international scrum-half Rolland may just have made his biggest contribution to an Irish win in his entire career.
Given that we face them in Dublin in next year’s championship and look well capable of winning that, Ireland should be targeting a four-game unbeaten run against the French leading into that World Cup.
Yet even at their most vulnerable, their record against us in recent years suggests that they have no fears or inhibitions when it comes to playing Ireland.
Schmidt has to shatter that French mentality in advance of the 2015 event, starting next month in Paris. His biggest worry at present is the well-being of Johnny Sexton.
Sexton’s form in the opening two games of the championship was excellent but in the aftermath of a disappointing performance last Saturday, Schmidt bemoaned Sexton’s workload at Racing Metro and his lack of preparation time with the Irish squad, given that he has to return to France in the down weekends.
Racing have another big game in the Top 14 next weekend against Castres, and Sexton will be required for action once again.
With Italy next up before a probable championship decider against France the following weekend, is there a case for Schmidt resting Sexton in that game? Is he prepared to place his trust in Paddy Jackson, given Ireland will be seeking to not only beat a decent Italian side but also rack up as many points as possible in the process? Would Ireland’s cause against France not be better served with a fresh Johnny Sexton lining out in Paris?
These are all questions that Schmidt and his management team must address in Belfast this week.
Given that Sexton won’t be part of that camp, Jackson will be running the plays in training anyway. Does the fact that Schmidt failed to introduce the Ulster man for the struggling Sexton in Twickenham suggest that he harbours reservations over Jackson’s ability to steer the ship in the big games? With just one Five/Six Nations championship in the bag since 1985, despite fielding some of the greatest players ever to wear the green jersey all playing in the same side over the last decade, a championship win this season would not only represent the perfect end game for one of our greatest players in Brian O’Driscoll, but would also offer a massive confidence boost to the younger players in the squad.
After all, a championship without a Triple Crown is more appealing than a Triple Crown without a championship.
Ireland are still very much on track to achieve that.
