Irish can turn Welsh strengths into weaknesses
This contest brings together the two best coaches in the tournament. Warren Gatland reached a significant milestone against Tonga last November when coaching a test side for the 100th time in his career with Ireland, Wales and the Lions. Today’s game may only represent Joe Schmidt’s fifth as an international coach, but he has what it takes to prevail at this level of competition.
Schmidt has a significant role to play today. In the vast majority of recent internationals between the countries, Gatland’s management team worked out a way to beat Ireland. The ironic thing here is that Wales have played the same way for the last few years, using their powerful runners to get over the gain line and generate forward momentum. They look to stretch teams by always going the same way until they reach the touchline. After a few phases when they have forced the opposition defensive line to cover the entire width of the pitch, they manufacture mismatches, with their big backs running into space defended by front five forwards.
Schmidt’s challenge is to knock Wales out of their comfort zone by presenting a challenge Gatland hasn’t prepared for. With an over reliance on the ball carrying of Sean O’Brien in the past, Gatland had Wales double team on him in the tackle and quickly killed Ireland’s forward momentum. Likewise, he always picked out Ronan O’Gara for special attention and had the Welsh back row force him back on the inside into traffic.
For Ireland to win, Schmidt must devise a strategy to stop Jamie Roberts, Wales’s best player against Italy last weekend, and George North getting over the gain line. He must also adjust his game plan to allow for working off a sparsity of throws into the line out as both Rhys Priestland and Leigh Halfpenny will kick long and parallel to the touchline and look to close the space with an aggressive chase. In their win in the corresponding game in Dublin two years ago, they restricted Ireland to just five lineouts over the 80 minutes and will attempt to limit them to less than ten this time out. Ireland had 15 against Scotland. Schmidt must be ready for this and come up with a remedy. The new man will earn his corn today.
Wales have a strategy to deny Ireland a lineout platform for a reason — they have been poor in this area themselves for some time now. Statistics are open to interpretation and therefore can be misleading. Against Italy last weekend, the Welsh lineout was widely praised, having won 17 of their 18 throws, but the quality of ball produced was very poor and often delivered badly to Mike Phillips. Ireland must make sure this happens again and get Rory Best and Chris Henry coming through to pile the pressure on the scrum-half. When he is hit early and often, he seeks retribution and looks to take people on.
That would suit Ireland just fine as it will serve to sever the link with his dangerous outside backs. Their main lineout operator, Ian Evans, is suspended due to that horrific stamp on Mike McCarthy and despite standing 6’ 9”, Luke Charteris struggled against Italy. He is ruled out with a hamstring injury and replaced by Andrew Coombs. I was impressed by Coombs in last season’s championship, but he is a converted back rower and not a dominant lineout operator.
That puts even more pressure on Alun-Wyn Jones, so John Plumtree will have worked very closely with Paul O’Connell to deliver a lineout plan that attacks Wales in the air on the vast majority of Richard Hibbard’s throws.
Even more of a worry for Gatland was the state of the Welsh scrum against the Italians last weekend. Paul James was badly exposed at loose head against Martin Castrogiovanni and it is no surprise the vastly experienced Gethin Jenkins has been recalled to shore up their scrum. The problem is Jenkins has suffered a succession of calf injuries over the last few seasons which is a major issue for a prop given that you are on the balls of your feet in the scrum with a lot of pressure going through the calf. Mike Ross must be told to go after Jenkins in every scrum in the knowledge that Marty Moore looks an able deputy to finish the job adequately.
Ireland’s scrum was very solid against Scotland, the only problem being that in the excellent conditions that prevailed last Sunday, there were only eight scrums. With a heavy surface likely today and rain forecast, there will be far more engagements. That will suit Cian Healy who is in outstanding form and did a number on Adam Jones for Leinster in their Heineken Cup clash against the Ospreys in January.
The Welsh game plan is all about building momentum by dominating the collisions with their big ball carriers. By exposing their set piece frailties, Ireland have the capacity to blunt that momentum at source.
Wales have placed a heavy reliance on their blitz defence in recent games against Ireland. With a clear vision of what was coming in their opening clash last season, Ireland found a way around that system in the opening half by getting the ball into the outside channels quickly and by some clever kicking from Johnny Sexton.
It helped that Jonathan Davies had a howler that day, well short of the form that would see him picked ahead of Brian O’Driscoll for the decisive third Lions test. It helps Ireland that in theabsence of Davies today, Scott Williams, a very good player but an inside centre for the Scarlets, is out of position in the outside centre channel and does not enjoy the same telepathic understanding Davies has with Roberts.
With Gordon D’Arcy restored to action, Ireland have the more cohesive midfield partnership. It should also help that with nine of today’s Welsh side starting that third Lions test and playing to the same patterns as Wales do in attack and defence, Sexton and O’Driscoll will know exactly what is coming.
Schmidt is lauded for his attention to detail and for his ability to come up with set plays that expose the weakness in the opposition defensive system and, rest assured, every system has points of vulnerability. Have no doubt that Schmidt has sat down with Sexton and O’Driscoll, with their inside knowledge from the summer, and dissected the Welsh/Lions game plan with forensic zeal. That could finally render Shaun Edwards’ blitz defence — where the tackler comes from the outside in and the winger stands up in the line in front of the outside centre — vulnerable to the inventive mind of the Ireland coach. What has for so long been a big strength of the Welsh game plan against Ireland could even turn into a point of weakness this time.
