Proving 2010 was no freak
This lack of interest can be largely explained by the feeling that Down enjoyed a good deal of luck in 2010 and played beyond themselves to make that year’s final.
As patronising as it may sound, the conventional wisdom is that Down have found their natural level since, that having stumbled uninvited upon an upper class party they are now back in the dive bars where they belong.
It’s an argument that must gall in a county whose players have always carried themselves with a swagger and self-assurance befitting their belief that they are part of the natural aristocracy.
Still, the evidence supports the notion that they overreached three years ago, and, in its own way, Down’s descent has been just as extreme as Donegal’s rise to the top.
The contrasting fortunes of both counties were never more evident than in their Ulster final clash last summer when James McCartan said afterwards that his side had been “trampled”.
In trampling Down by 11 points, Donegal announced themselves as being more than mere poster boys for an innovative but divisive brand of defensive football.
It’s hard to imagine these days, but before that game Donegal were still considered to be a team that was overreaching and whose limitations would eventually be cruelly exposed as they were against Dublin in the previous year’s infamous semi final.
Now, Donegal are a team who many believe are so close to being invincible that they can only be beaten by themselves.
An air of invincibility is a useful thing in sport, and as long as his players don’t buy into it themselves, Jim McGuinness will be happy to allow the aura of invulnerability grow, while privately guarding against complacency.
The more excitable members of the Donegal fan club claim that only a lack of hunger or a series of unfortunate long-term injuries will undo their title defence.
The idea that accidents don’t happen in Jim McGuinness’s world is an attractive one, but the reality is that in getting more of the little things right than anyone else, McGuinness will also be more keenly aware of all the little things that can go wrong.
Tomorrow, Down will have to be ready to exploit any complacency on Donegal’s part and they need to take full advantage of the absence of Karl Lacey and Neil Gallagher, two vital cogs in the precisely calibrated Donegal machine.
But it is how they go about identifying the little things that will dictate whether or not they can rattle the cage of the All-Ireland champions.
Firstly, and most importantly, Down must find a way to make the ball stick in their scoring zone.
They will have to move the ball quickly and efficiently on those rare occasions when Donegal’s transition from swarm defence to swarm attack breaks down.
The problem they face here is that when Donegal go on the attack, they generally score. They may have gained a reputation for a hyperactive end-to-end style, but they choose their moments to attack more carefully than that reputation suggests.
One of the keys to Donegal’s success is that they have made full-forward lines redundant. As attack after attack is choked up outfield, the effort involved in trying to penetrate the outer wall saps the life from the opposition, causing them to make the mistakes that are then gleefully punished on the counter attack.
When teams go for long periods without scoring, they inevitably become demoralised, as Tyrone did during the 32 minutes they spent without worrying an umpire.
Down must take a more intelligent approach to their task than was evident in the poor use of sweeper Peter Turley against Derry.
Tomorrow they will have to get their smart and creative players on the ball as often as possible. The question is, do they have enough players with the required imagination or instinct to break down the Donegal system? How they must yearn every day for Marty Clarke and his ability to pick a pass.
Down have been making the right noises this week about respecting Donegal without fearing them, but they must find the right balance between their native audacity and the patience required to break down the All-Ireland champions.
Their clash with Derry was the most entertaining game in some time with 3-28 of the 3-32 scored from play and just 15 wides in total.
In the past, Down’s innocent commitment to entertainment has hampered their development as serious contenders but they now appear to be more at peace with the less glamorous side of the modern game.
They are, for example, more willing to commit the routine fouls so essential to breaking counter-attacking momentum and Niall Moyna has been recruited to work on fitness levels. The improvement in this area was obvious in their second-half surge against Derry.
Other plusses for Down that day included Kevin McKernan’s four points from midfield, an area where Donegal struggled for periods against Tyrone, and the continued excellence of Mark Poland, one of the most intelligent players in the game today. Poland is crucial to Down’s chances of taking whatever crumbs Donegal throw their way.
Donegal kicked seven unanswered points when the sides met in the league and last month Tyrone registered 13 wides to Donegal’s five.
James McCartan will hope the first statistic is an aberration and the second is part of a trend that might indicate the champions have begun to concede more scoring opportunities.
Although Jim McGuinness will be rightly concerned at the injury-interrupted seasons of Lacey, Gallagher, McGlynn, Thompson and McHugh, he will be pleased at the performances of lesser lights like Ross Wherity and Martin McElhinney. Injuries may eventually take their toll but for the time being, the notion that Donegal’s squad lacks genuine depth has been put to bed.
With Paddy McBrearty threatening to be one of the stars of 2013, Donegal have further options and, as McBrearty matures, they can afford to give Michael Murphy the room to roam as he sees fit.
In tandem with Colm McFadden both men will ask searching questions of Down’s often fragile defence and though it is unlikely Down will be trampled like last year, I take Donegal to add to their aura of invincibility with a crack at a third Anglo Celt cup in a row.
