DONAL LENIHAN: France will intrigue... but can Kidney’s new green wave click?
SO soon after the traditional drama of Heineken Cup round six, the early phase of the RBS Six Nations suffers by comparison. It doesn’t help that the six national coaches know how important a win is on the opening weekend. Few risks are taken.
For years, I have questioned the logic of not having a bonus-point system in the tournament and I am delighted the issue was raised again, at the launch in London last week. The cases for and against were well-made, with French coach Philippe Saint-Andre vehemently opposed, and reservations also expressed by Declan Kidney. There was merit in both arguments.
The Corinthian stance adopted by the French man was refreshing to read when the game bears so little resemblance to the old Five Nations championship. Generating a big financial return from the game’s oldest international tournament will be the driving force in the bonus-point debate when it is discussed at the end of this season. The Six Nations is struggling to outdo its European club equivalent.
It has impacted greatly on the allure of the championship that Italy and Scotland will inevitably battle it out to avoid the wooden spoon, and that the Italians will be brave and committed, strong up front, but indisciplined and directionless at half-back.
The side I am most excited to see is France. Having taken over the reins from the colourful Marc Lievremont in the weeks after the one-point World Cup final loss to hosts New Zealand, Saint-Andre was duty bound to stick with the squad that had come so close to immortality on his Six Nations debut as coach last season. As is their wont, France imploded, losing to England and Wales, after hanging in for a draw against Ireland at the Stade de France.
The summer tour to Argentina was Saint-Andre’s opportunity to blood a raft of new players, many of whom he stuck with last autumn. The most striking thing about the French in the November window was their style of play. It was reminiscent of the French of old, with the emphasis on playing out of the tackle, keeping the ball alive, and performing with pace and intensity.
Their inspirational World Cup captain, Thierry Dusautoir, who missed the series due to injury, has lost the captaincy to Pascal Pape and is struggling to win his place back. If he is only good enough for the bench, then France must have a serious side. The question is whether Saint-Andre, a conservative coach in his time in Gloucester and Sale, will stick to his new-found principles and allow his multi-talented back line to express themselves. With a traditionally sticky opener in Rome, it will be interesting to see whether he will look to his forwards to stifle the Italians, or his back line to out-run them.
French rugby is on a high, with Clermont Auvergne, Toulon and Montpellier all through to the quarter-finals of the Heineken Cup, with Clermont the favourites to take the crown vacated by Leinster. They come into the championship with spirits high, and next up, after Rome, they play a Welsh outfit struggling with injury. France could be in a strong position after the first round. After that comes the pivotal clash against England, in Twickenham, which will have a big say in the destination of the championship.
Much will depend on how Freddie Michalak, restored to out-half for all three outings in that autumn series, will perform on his championship recall. Most of his club rugby this season has been at scrum-half for Toulon, and having exiled himself for a few seasons, playing for the Natal Sharks in Super 15 rugby, is back in harness and directing the show.
Francois Trinh-Duc has been inconsistent, and the experiment of playing Clermont scrum half, Morgan Parra, at ten was a disaster. Hence, Saint-Andre has turned back the clock and Michalak will be asked to direct the troops again. How he copes will be crucial to the French challenge.
Of the newcomers, one of the most interesting is Racing Metro scrum half, Maxime Machenaud. First capped on that summer tour to Argentina, he was outstanding throughout the autumn, relegating Parra to the bench for the big tests against Australia and Argentina. Against Munster, at the Stade de France in the opening round of this season’s Heineken Cup, he produced a man-of-the-match performance and was instrumental in turning the tide.
Up front, the most impressive of the newcomers is Yannick Forestier, at loose head prop, who scrummaged magnificently and ran and passed like a three-quarter. He is the French version of Cian Healy. Keeping Clermont’s Thomas Domingo and Vincent Debaty on the sideline was a fair achievement, and he looked set to take the Six Nations by storm. That was until Ulster pitched up at the Stade Pierre Antoine in the Heineken Cup, and Forestier got such a pummelling from former All Black, John Afoa, that Castres were left with no option but to withdraw him five minutes into the second half. That must been a set-back to Saint-Andre’s plans and Domingo could now play a more central role.
With all the talk of the golden generation, and the outstanding sides that have graced the Six Nations since that benchmark win over the French, in Paris, 13 years ago, it is incredible to think Ireland have only one championship success to parade, for all their efforts since winning the old Five Nations in 1985. That is a shocking return for such a talented group of players. The Grand Slam of 2009 was a wonderful achievement, but, despite winning four Triple Crowns in that period, it is extraordinary that none of them, apart from 2009, were accompanied by championship success.
Ireland enter this tournament in high spirits. The way they coped without Brian O’Driscoll, Paul O’Connell, Stephen Ferris, Rory Best, Rob Kearney, Luke Fitzgerald and Sean O’Brien in the autumn series is massively encouraging for the next few weeks, given that all, bar O’Connell, are back in the mix.
The emergence of Simon Zebo, Craig Gilroy, Chris Henry, Mike McCarthy, Dave Kilcoyne, Ian Henderson and Peter O’Mahony has added greatly to the selection mix, and the right balance will be key to continuing the momentum generated against Argentina. That said, given our recent history against Wales, nobody will be getting too carried away until that crucial opener at the Millennium Stadium has been successfully negotiated.
Wales have had the measure of Ireland, on and off the field in the last three outings, twice in the Six Nations, but also in the World Cup quarter-final in Wellington. With Warren Gatland out of the equation on this occasion, and Wales struggling and down on confidence after a run of seven defeats, Ireland must seize the moment and get off to a winning start. With England arriving in Dublin in round two, tomorrow’s game is critical to Ireland’s title aspirations.
A Six Nations championship that follows immediately after a World Cup is always a bit of a curate’s egg. Last season was no different, even if it did deliver a Grand Slam for Wales. The tournament falling in this four-year cycle, however, has even more to offer, especially for players from the four home countries, with Lions selection to aim for.
With so much to play for across the board, and a number of contenders in rude health, I think that this could well be the best Six Nations championship in years.
1. Can Wales continue to over-perform in major championships?
The principal reason behind Warren Gatland’s appointment as Lions head coach for the Australia tour is down to what he achieved with a young Welsh side at the 2011 World Cup.
That he followed up on their semi-final appearance by delivering a Grand Slam despite the weight of expectation in a rugby-mad nation cemented him in the role. What made the latter achievement even more noteworthy was the fact that he was handicapped by multiple injury problems in the opening two rounds yet still registered a brace of wins.
The success of the national side, despite the fact that the four regions have struggled in Europe, has baffled many. If anything the players appear liberated in their national colours.
However, after a very disappointing autumn schedule when all four games against Argentina, New Zealand, Samoa and Australia were lost, can Wales perform above expectations again? The fact that Gatland has taken a back seat for the championship because of his Lions commitments will put a lot of pressure on his temporary replacement Rob Howley.
In addition, injury issues heading into tomorrow’s game against Ireland are even greater than the ones Gatland faced for their opener in Dublin last year. Surely this over-achievement cannot continue.
2. What chance a Scottish revival?
Every year we see evidence prior to the Six Nations that a Scottish revival could be on the cards. Last season, Edinburgh had qualified for the quarter-finals of the Heineken Cup and Glasgow were also over-achieving in the PRO12. Alas, another shocking 6N followed from a side that too often flatter to deceive.
At least expectations this time are at an all-time low with that defeat against Tonga in November, the catalyst for Andy Robinson to step down before he was pushed.
As always the Scots will field a gigantic pack of forwards with the pressure on their man mountain in the second row, Richie Gray, to perform and cement his place on the Lions tour. It would help if those around him knuckled down a little more and carried their weight. Interim forwards coach Dean Ryan should contribute to a more cohesive effort up front. Scotland’s problem is converting quality possession and pressure into points on the board.
That is an issue that will decide whether or not acting coach Scott Johnson converts the job into a full-time post but with a back three of Stuart Hogg, Tim Visser and former Canterbury Crusader Sean Maitland, Scotland finally have some exciting fire power to brandish.
Ryan has always impressed me, from his days as a player, through to his coaching stints at Newcastle and Gloucester and in his work with Sky Sports.
The new duo have promised very little coming into this championship and in some ways are coming in under the radar. This could be the championship where Scotland finally do exceed expectations.
3. Can England replicate what they produced against New Zealand?
The pressure on England to deliver is in marked contrast to Scotland. The fact that they are set to meet on the opening weekend at Twickenham will only increase the expectation of an England win. That unbelievable 38-21 performance against New Zealand last December has now set the bar for Stuart Lancaster’s men but the big question is whether they will be able to reproduce the level of intensity.
The foundation for that display was borne out of the sheer frustration in failing to deliver over the previous weekends against an under-performing Australian side and an under-strength South Africa. To their credit, England produced a show of manic power and energy at the breakdown that caught New Zealand cold. The fact that they were able to sustain their efforts for the entire 80 minutes saw them over the line, something their supporters will want to see repeated on a consistent basis in this tournament. Is that possible? We are about to find out.
