We need break from old routine
Certainly, as he stepped into the Poznan press conference room on the eve of his team’s eventual evisceration of Ireland, the mood around the entire match changed.
And, as a result, the mood around Ireland’s entire tournament changed. After all the talk of replicating Greece 2004, Ireland now seem much likelier to follow Greece 2008: out in the first round.
Ultimately, Bilic explained exactly why. Although, in truth, he did so before the game.
The Croatian manager can often give off the impression of enjoying the sound of his own voice — and, at one stage during Saturday’s press conference, he rocked his head back and looked to the sky for a lengthy period, as if completely bored by his surroundings — but, in the context of Sunday night, you can suddenly understand why he was so strident.
“I follow the Irish team and I know everything about them. They play very good football but also simple football so, objectively, they are not such a difficult team to analyse... I don’t know if they can surprise us.”
They didn’t. Because, in the end, it wasn’t that Bilic knew something everyone else didn’t. It was that he knew something that should have been absolutely clear to everyone.
As goes without saying — and as Giovanni Trapattoni often infers — Ireland are predictable. But the real key to that is that a truly clever, intense and obsessive manager can properly prepare how to exploit and beat them. Because, when it comes down to it, it’s not even that Ireland are predictable. It’s that they perform in effectively rehearsed moves — as reflected by the fact yet another goal came from a set-piece.
By doing that, you’re effectively offering a properly meticulous manager the blueprint for how to beat you. Bilic studied it and struck gold with it. Ireland were pulled all over the pitch at various stages, Stephen Ward was exploited.
And this is the real crux when it comes to comparisons with Greece. Indeed, the comparisons only go so far — to the defensive midfield. Because, for all the perceptions of Greece as a rigid, dull side in 2004, it’s often forgotten that Otto Rehhagel completely altered his shape in every knockout game.
Against France in the quarter-final, he allowed his left-back Takis Fysass to storm forward. Against Portugal, he instructed the full-backs to track Cristiano Ronaldo and Luis Figo while allowing Theo Zagorakis to get forward.
In short, Rehhagel continuously evolved. It meant Greece were a step ahead of superior opponents in every match. That bridged the gap... before goals from set-pieces and crosses extended it the other way. Greece weren’t all about defensive durability and set-pieces. Far from it.
For all Trapattoni talks about Ireland’s lack of unpredictability and elite quality, too, it’s worth going through the Greek names that applied these innovations: Zagorakis, Kostas Katsouranis, Angelos Basinas, Angelos Charisteas — in other words, all around a similar level to the Irish squad.
The irony, however, is that the most immediate Euro 2012 game probably demands no change. As sides like Switzerland and Rubin Kazan have illustrated against Spain’s Barcelona core, the only repeatedly proven way to overcome their pressing, passing game is to sit very deep, congest the space and hope for something opportune on the break.
That is how much Spain play games on their own terms. As such, Trapattoni’s Ireland don’t really have to change theirs.
But, if that set-up is to be successful against the Spanish, and if Ireland are somehow to have a fighting chance of getting out of this group, Trapattoni is probably going to have to offer something opposition managers don’t expect. Let alone know.
