Front five key to an Irish victory
In terms of the head coaches, there is no dispute that Warren Gatland won the tactical battle in Wellington. While misfortune played a big part in Ireland’s defeat by Wales in last season’s Six Nations game in Cardiff with that illegal try by Mike Phillips, there was no questioning the merit of the Welsh win in New Zealand.
Gatland attacked Ireland at source, chop-tackling the main ball carriers in Sean O’Brien, Stephen Ferris and Jamie Heaslip around the ankles which prevented them from making the yardage they accumulated so successfully against Australia. This denied the team any forward momentum. It also enabled Sam Warburton to do what he does best, compete for ball on the deck. In addition, Gatland set up a system that cut Ronan O’Gara off from his outside backs, forcing him to turn inside where the voracious Welsh back row were waiting for him.
On the assumption that Wales will again target the Irish back row, Kidney needs a system where Ireland keep the ball off the deck by off-loading prior to the tackle. In situations where players have no option but to go to ground, there must be an immediate emphasis on the next three players rucking beyond the ball. This may necessitate committing more numbers to the ruck early on, but it has to be done. Ireland lost all the major collisions in that World Cup quarter-final when Wales out muscled them. That cannot be allowed to happen a second time. Ireland need to play with the intensity at the breakdown that they showed in the victory over England in the final game of last season’s Championship and in that magnificent win over Australia in Auckland.
Kidney also needs to make sure that Ireland deal better with the blitz defence that the Welsh used to such good effect in Wellington. Ireland know exactly what Wales are going to do and must use that to their advantage. They failed miserably on that front last time out. Kidney also needs to devise a plan for dealing with Mike Phillips. If he is targeted and put under physical pressure, he will react by taking on all around him. That will separate him from the rest of a very potent backline and aid Ireland’s cause.
When the Irish squad conducted their World Cup debrief at Carton House before Christmas, dissatisfaction with their attacking game was the players’ major gripe. Alan Gaffney, who presided over that aspect of preparation, was always going to finish up after the trip to New Zealand thus opening the door for someone else to offer fresh ideas. Responsibility for co-ordinating Ireland’s attacking strategy is now shared between defence coach Les Kiss and kicking coach Mark Tainton.
Over the last few days the Ireland management have spoken about adopting a more expansive approach in order to exploit the talent available out wide. Ireland had become far too predictable with many of the wrap around moves favoured by Leinster becoming a stable part of the attacking strategy. The trouble was the opposition could read what was coming even before the pass was made. Leinster’s attack has moved on already this season and the question on everyone’s lips tomorrow is — has Ireland’s?
Ireland are in need of new ideas. The one certainty going into this game is that Wales will kick long from inside their 22 and will put up bombs between the 22 and the halfway line. That affords Ireland the opportunity to counter attack. Rob Kearney has returned from last season’s long term knee injury a more complete player and that has manifested itself in his ability to link better from broken play. Tommy Bowe, Andrew Trimble and Gordon D’Arcy need to tune into his wavelength quickly in order to punish any loose kicking from the Welsh. Kearney must build on his new found confidence to counter and link forcing Wales to alter their kicking strategy. The late withdrawal of Keith Earls robs Ireland of a great threat from broken play but at least there will be a familiarity across the three quarters with his replacement, Fergus McFadden starting many games in Leinster colours this season with D’Arcy and Sexton.
Ireland need to reintroduce some of the strike moves off set plays that were such a feature of their game two seasons ago. Much of this will depend on how dominant Ireland are in the set piece. A succession of injuries to the Welsh in that sector should give Ireland the platform from which to attack. Question is are they good enough to take it.
Forwards coach Gert Smal must seize the opportunity to expose Wales at the set piece. Gethin Jenkins is a massive loss to the Welsh scrum — his replacement Rhys Gill is unproven at this level — and their two primary ball winners at the lineout, Luke Charteris and Alun Wyn Jones are also out.
The best way to undermine confidence in any team is to dismantle their set piece. Ireland need to approach this game with that mentality. The Welsh lineout needs to be targeted. The new second row pairing of Ian Evans and Bradley Davies need to be put under enormous pressure in the air and Smal needs to take a leaf from the Munster playbook and reintroduce the maul off certain line-outs.
Jenkins and Wyn Jones are seasoned campaigners and leaders within the group. It was easier for Gatland to appoint Warburton as his captain when that level of experience was at hand and in close proximity to his chief decision maker. Warburton has impressed everyone with his maturity, leadership and composure under pressure to date but if the going gets tough tomorrow he may be left vulnerable and exposed.
If Ireland can get the Welsh on the back foot up front then it will be very difficult for their impressive young No 8, Toby Falatou, to make the inroads he managed in Wellington. It will also make it more difficult to contain the bullocking runs of O’Brien and Ferris. The front five offer the key to an Irish victory. That is why Kidney has stuck with Donncha O’Callaghan’s greater experience over his provincial colleague Donncha Ryan, who is sure to be introduced in the second half.
