If French get their ducks in a row...
Playing against Wales first up on Sunday will undoubtedly rekindle memories of what might have been in October’s traumatic World Cup quarter-final. Ireland had to win that night for the right to play France in the semi-final who, as we all know, went within a whisker of beating New Zealand in the decider.
This time out, regardless of what happens against Wales, there will be no escaping the French and a trip to Paris six days later to face a side, who under new management, could even pose a more formidable challenge than the one faced by Graham Henry’s men in Auckland.
An Ireland win on Sunday would change the dynamic of that trip immeasurably.
Despite the sustained brilliance of the Heineken Cup, the Six Nations retains a magic all of its own even if it has suffered by comparison in recent years to its much younger European rival in terms of quality, intensity and raw passion.
This season, however, could be different as three of the participants — France, England and Italy — are under new management which always generates a fresh impetus while Wales will fancy their chances after a very positive World Cup experience.
Scotland promised much in New Zealand but despite pushing England and Argentina to the brink, still lacked the scoring power to get over the line. With the feelgood factor generated in Europe by Michael Bradley’s Edinburgh and the consistent results achieved by Glasgow Warriors which sees them lie fourth in the Rabo Direct Pro12, Andy Robinson has every reason to be bullish about his sides’ prospects, at least for Saturday’s visit to Murrayfield of England.
The Edinburgh contingent have rediscovered the art of winning consistently at the home of Scottish rugby and with successive victories over French, Welsh and English opposition they will seek to fuel a Scottish rugby revival in this tournament. That is long overdue for a very proud rugby nation and the championship could do with a rejuvenated challenge from the Scots.
If there is one game that stokes their fires, it is the prospect of the English crossing the border. The fact that English rugby has had to endure a very public humiliation since the World Cup, with the leaking of all three reviews has created a great anxiety within all of the key components of English rugby. The most recent off field shenanigans involving Delon Armitage will not help matters. How often do these guys have to be told before the message begins to sink in? If things start to unravel early on then England could be in trouble, even allowing for Scotland’s lack of firepower behind the scrum.
For me, the most interesting aspect of this year’s Six Nations is how the French will do under Philippe Saint-Andre. Since 1999 we have endured the idiosyncrasies of Bernard Laporte and Marc Lievremont — consequently Les Bleus have been a pale shadow of the team it should be. Every now and then they remind us what they are capable of by beating New Zealand in a World Cup or by getting to a final despite a mutiny in the camp. Then they lose to Italy or Tonga at the World Cup and, for good measure, suffer annihilation against Australia at Stade de France (59-16) in 2010. One wonders what a period of normality would bring.
What would happen if they pick an out-half in the out-half slot or, heaven forbid, a full-back in the No 15 jersey? We are about to find out as Saint-Andre is a practical rugby man and has signalled his intentions already by selecting Francois Trinh-Duc to start in the key pivotal role with Lionel Beauxis on the bench. Scrum-half Morgan Parra is unlikely to see a No 10 jersey again for a long, long time. In addition, Maxime Medard is restored to full back in what appears a very exciting looking back division.
The biggest issue for Saint-Andre at present is the continuing madness of the French federation running a full schedule of the French championship on the eve of their opening game. At least it appears as if most of his players escaped injury over the weekend.
It should also help the new coach that Italy, also under new management with former Perpignan coach Jacques Brunel at the helm, are their first opponents at the Stade de France on Saturday. After that it’s Ireland, also at home, for the French and despite their many aberrations in recent years, they appear to retain the Indian sign over us. That is why it’s vital for Declan Kidney’s men to get off to a winning start on Sunday. With three sides in the quarter finals of the Heineken Cup and a large splattering of the squad in excellent form, the general expectation is of an Irish win. The fact that Wales once again have been badly hit on the injury front with Gethin Jenkins, Luke Charters and Alun Wyn Jones all missing from the front five that performed so well in New Zealand, has shortened the odds in Ireland favour.
However, Ireland need to be careful. The opening games in the Six Nations have been notoriously poor in recent years as all sides struggle to find their rhythm and are desperate to start without a defeat instead of going bald headed for a win. Wales have just spent a week in Gdansk in a desperate effort to rekindle the spirit and feelgood factor that fired their World Cup campaign but you just wonder what the psychological effect of losing so many quality forwards will have on their mindset.
In addition Warren Gatland has delayed naming his side until Friday in a desperate bid to get Dan Lydiate, Jamie Roberts and Rhys Priestland off the treatment table. At this remove, it is difficult to fathom how the bookies, in England at least, have Ireland as fourth favourites for championship honours behind France, Wales and even England.
France certainly deserve top billing based on their World Cup showing alone when they resembled a mutinous rabble. Just imagine what they could achieve if they all trusted each other and believed in their management. If Saint-Andre can introduce that clarity and unity of purpose on top of getting his selection right, then France will be formidable. Then again you look at how poor Toulouse were in that shock defeat by Gloucester and how Clermont Auvergne struggled to get over the line at home against Ulster — between them those two clubs provide ten of the starting team against Italy on Saturday.
A win for Ireland on Sunday, which they’re more than capable of producing, could result in a direct shoot-out with the French for overall honours. We will all be a little wiser by next Monday morning.
