Emotionless logic leads O’Brien to correct conclusion
Most of us punters, pundits and bookmakers alike, bought into the hype surrounding Hurricane Fly, simply failing to see what was staring us right in the face.
The handicapper could not have got it more right. His ratings told us that Solwhit was 8lbs a better horse than Hurricane Fly, while he had Muirhead 1lb ahead of him.
But would we listen, oh no. What the handicapper clearly did was to look at the form of all three horses and, without emotion, arrive at a conclusion.
His summing up was that Solwhit had far and away the best form and his irresistible logic could hardly be faulted.
Solwhit won, largely unextended, by two and a half lengths from Muirhead, who, as he was entitled to do, according to the handicapper, beat Hurricane Fly a length into third.
Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh had made no secret of the high regard with which they held Hurricane Fly and he had been mighty impressive on several occasions.
But, in the context of Sunday’s opposition, there was no real substance to what he had achieved and he was stepping out of novice company against a pair of battle-hardened warriors.
I mean, no matter what way you looked at it, he had done absolutely nothing which compared with Solwhit’s Grade 1 success at Aintree or that horse’s lung-bursting short head defeat of Champion Hurdler, Punjabi, at Punchestown.
For those pundits who got this completely wrong, and they constituted the vast majority, at least there was comfort in knowing it didn’t cost us any money.
Personally, I felt there was certainly no value at all in backing Hurricane Fly at odds-on against an opponent as dangerous as Solwhit.
But for the layers it was an entirely different story. Throughout the morning, Solwhit was available as high as 11-4.
And with no great move for him, the boys on track felt it was safe enough offering 5-2. Such largesse deserved to be punished and it was, with Solwhit hardening to 7-4.
In any case, what was particularly impressive was the manner in which Solwhit surged clear from the final flight.
He didn’t exactly wing the obstacle, but picked up in a flash and settled this in a matter of strides.
The ante-post bookmakers now have Solwhit and Hurricane Fly bracketed more or less together for the Champion Hurdle, at around 5-1.
That’s a bit of a puzzle. We all know the way Mullins trains his horses and there’s the obvious possibility has left tons to work on.
The one thing which was more than noticeable about Hurricane Fly, however, at the Mullins open day recently, was that this is a small horse, who doesn’t seem to have a whole lot of scope.
As well as that, who’s to say that Solwhit won’t improve even more than him? We know he stays two and a half miles, he showed that at Aintree, and got two miles on the flat standing on his head.
What Sunday seemed to indicate was that there is now a devastating turn of foot to complement the boundless stamina.
To my way of thinking Solwhit, at the moment at least, seems a far more likely winner of the Champion Hurdle than Hurricane Fly.
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THE handicapper’s retribution for Our Monty’s stroll in the park in Sunday’s Cork Grand National has been nothing short of savage.
Willie Mullins’ recent recruit never settled through the contest, but had so much in hand was able to beat Glenquin Castle by five and a half lengths, a margin which could have been seriously increased had David Casey so wished.
Anyway, Our Monty has gone up a massive 25lbs, so Mullins’ next move will be more than interesting.
The six-year-old has only run three times for the Carlow handler and the prelude to Sunday’s lucrative exercise was two wins over hurdles.
Perhaps, Our Monty will revert to flights for his next outing. After all, his current rating at that game is now 8lbs below his new mark over fences.
