Jack Anderson: We have waited 135 years for change, we can surely wait another 135 days

Kieran Molloy of Galway at the final whistle as Roscommon supporters rush past him during the Connacht GAA Football Senior Championship final in 2019.

The idea that the yearly champions of a sport should emerge from a competitive, tiered league system was last considered radical in the late 19th century. And yet on Saturday, that very idea will be central to a GAA special congress on the future of its most important competition — the men’s All-Ireland football championship

Although momentum now seems to be behind motion 19 — flipping the provincial championships to spring and having a league-based summer All-Ireland — influential elements within the GAA are “agin it”.

In one of those procedural quirks unique to the GAA, motion 19 is not the first championship motion on the agenda.

Motion 18 is an eight-team, provincial championships proposal. After a Kafkaesque repechage system based on where a county finishes in the Allianz League, teams are divided equally among the provinces.

A minor intrigue at GAA Congress tomorrow is that motion 19 will only be voted upon if motion 18 (the 4X8 proposal) fails.

There seems to be a consensus however that the only redeeming feature of motion 18 is its mathematical symmetry. If the historical fifth province (cúige) in Ireland (Greater Meath) still existed, who knows what they would have done — maybe split Dublin in four (7 X 5)?

Motion 18 is a bit like a politician moving to an adjacent constituency but originally from and still residing in another. It is a move that has never really been a vote-getter in Ireland. It is seen as slightly desperate even a tad cynical. It seems therefore that as an election candidate, motion 18 may not even get its deposit back.

While there may be emerging unity on what is not wanted (motion 18), there remains disunity on what is needed to restructure the football championship (motion 19). The Squid Game-like twist in the plot is that if neither motion 18 nor 19 succeeds, then the last man standing is the current provincial structures with qualifiers. The Super 8s are out. The Tailteann Cup — I’d prefer the O’Dwyer-Heffernan Cup — is in.

This could mean that, although a majority do not want this default option, that is what they’ll get. In trying to guess what Congress might do tomorrow — motion 18 or 19 or the motionless third option — the old racing adage applies: “in a race of three back the outsider.”

In 1999, for example, Australia had a republic referendum. A majority were in favour of removing the Queen as the Head of State but because republicans couldn’t agree on how this might be done, the referendum failed. The Queen remains, so might the provinces and the backdoor qualifiers.

Another racing adage that might be more apt is “always back the horse named self-interest”. And that brings us to the criticism of motion 19 (the summer league-championship).

The concerns that the CEOs of the various provinces have about motion 19 betray the power relations (administrative and financial) within the GAA. Let’s speak plainly here. Motion 19 will mean that the provinces, denuded of summer championships and the accompanying revenue, will become less important in the GAA’s administrative hierarchy. Provincial councils will become decentralised offices of Croke Park.

Round robin provincial championships held in spring will not hold the same appeal (for spectators, sponsors, and broadcasters alike) as those that exist currently – certainly in Ulster. For those of my generation, the Munster Senior Cup in rugby was a storied feature of the club game in the province. Of course, it still has a place, but the rise of the All-Ireland League saw it lose its lustre.

The reactions of the CEOs of Ulster (Brian McAvoy) and Leinster (Michael Reynolds — one of the most decent, hardworking GAA officials I ever came across) to motion 19 must be seen in this light. They are battling for the future of the organisations which they run.

Moreover, they have the right (as McAvoy did in an Off the Ball interview) to raise questions about why the embedded system should be replaced by one not fully costed. Members of the Calendar Task Force have manfully suggested that motion 19 could add €10m to the GAA’s coffers. GAA’s central office dispute the total and its methodology. They say that the third ‘default’ option (provinces, backdoor, and Tailteann Cup) would likely be the most effective revenue generator (as I said earlier back the outsider of three, especially if its name is self-interest).

Why is it that, even though the Calendar Task Force’s proposals have been around for months, is it only this week that we got any meaningful insight into what the GAA’s CEO’s thoughts are on all this?

Sports organisations have three ways of raising revenue — membership/gate receipts; sponsorship and broadcasting. The limited domestic market means that the second and third sources will always be relatively restricted for the GAA. Ways of showcasing your key championship at the optimal time of year in as competitive a light as possible surely merited a more forceful contribution from the GAA’s CEO, especially one who was the former finance director.

This week’s press conference by Tom Ryan favouring motion 19 was not exactly an “it was The Sun wot won it” moment, though his assurance that provincial councils will not be left out of pocket by a league-based championship was telling.

But to get a motion across the line at Congress requires more than a press conference. Anyone acquainted with the GAA knows that most of the dealing goes on beforehand. In the GAA, the on-track SP is irrelevant; business is done ante-post.

One thing to watch out for tomorrow from the top table – Paraic Duffy was a master at it – is who speaks on a motion and in what order. Wait to see if one of the traditional hurling counties contributes. If a hurling county speaks in favour of a football motion, the subtext is: “listen lads usually we don’t care what ye do but even we think this is a good idea”.

Personally, it is hard to see how the provincial system can continue. Between them, Kerry and Cork have won the Munster football championship more times than Rangers and Celtic have won in Scotland. And even that is false because the last time Waterford or Limerick won one, the Wright Brothers had yet to fly.

Equally though, the problem with motion 19 is that it is predicated on the principle that everyone must have a chance to compete in the Sam Maguire.

In adhering to that principle, motion 19 means that the sixth best team in the country is out of the championship after the league, but those ranked 17th and 25th remain. If the same system had been used in the 32 team FIFA World Cup of 2018, then, after the group stages, France (who won it) would have been eliminated and Germany (who won one game) would have progressed.

The principle of “one in, all in” to the Sam Maguire is also at odds with what takes place in virtually every other facet of GAA life. Inter-county hurling has five tiers. Ladies football and camogie have thriving, differing grades. Indeed, after the vote on Saturday, many delegates will attend weekend matches involving their own clubs in junior, intermediate or senior championships with promotion and relegation.

If a county board at its AGM this year raised the idea that from now on every junior club must compete in an all-county senior championship, it would be struck down as fanciful and self-defeating.

Some acknowledge that motion 19 is flawed but that it will do for now and can be tweaked later. The GAA does not work like that. The introduction of the offensive mark in Gaelic football was the wrong answer to a question that no one asked and yet we are stuck with it.

If a rule that misunderstands both Gaelic Games and Aussie Rules can survive, so might a flawed championship motion.

A time-limited experiment with motion 19, suggested by former President John Horan, seems sensible. Or why not, informed by the current debate, remit the matter to the Calendar Task Force (a highly talented grouping) for them to reflect and readjust to the (we hope) post-Covid GAA world of a split club/inter-county season. We have waited 135 years for change, we can surely wait another 135 days or so.

Ultimately, a century and a half of history is at the heart of all of this. The first football final was played in 1888 between Limerick and Louth. When will a men’s senior football All-Ireland final, featuring such counties, happen again?

- Jack Anderson, Professor of Sports Law, Melbourne