Irish Examiner View: Reading the electorate ahead of the by-elections

Gerry 'The Monk' Hutch will attract much attention in the Dublin Central by-election. Picture: Sam Boal/Collins Photo

Three weeks out from two crucial by-elections in Galway West and Dublin Central, the Government is already anticipating losses in both constituencies.

As has ever been the case, by-elections don’t generally go the way of those in power, and the Government is trying its best to manage limited expectations. Among the ruling parties it is felt that only Fine Gael’s Sean Kyne, running in Galway West, has an each-way chance of winning a seat.

Fianna Fáil has pretty much conceded it has little chance in either constituency, and it is expected that there will be possible gains for Sinn Féin and Independent Ireland.

Ultimately the results will bring little pressure to bear on the Government parties — their majority in the Dáil is secure — but the results will undoubtedly give us a snapshot of the electorate’s mood after a tumultuous couple of weeks.

By-elections often turn out to be a referendum on the hot political issues of the moment. In this case, yet again, the voters will be focused on housing, cost-of-living concerns, and energy costs.

Such elections can sometimes trigger bigger political developments — remember when Jack Lynch was forced from office after a double by-election loss in 1979? — but in this case nothing of the sort is likely.

The Government parties are well aware that no candidate from a party in power has been successful in a by-election since 2014. In fact, government parties have won only three by-elections in 25 attempts in the last 30 years.

The presence of veteran criminal Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch in the Dublin Central contest will undoubtedly attract much attention, especially as he polled so well in the last general election, but a media fixation on his candidacy is unlikely to propel him to victory, especially as he is facing a strong Sinn Féin candidate in Janice Boylan.

Undoubtedly the coming weeks will be interesting — but for the Government parties, they will not be apocalyptic.

Orbán aftermath: Financial fallout for Hungary

Outgoing Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban and his supporters contrived to swell their personal wealth enormously. Picture: Luca Bruno/AP

It is less than a month since Peter Magyar’s opposition Tisza party won a stunning election victory in Hungary, sparking widespread joy by comprehensively defeating Victor Orbán and his Fidesz organisation, and ending their 16-year dominance of the country’s political landscape.

During that time, Orbán and his supporters contrived to swell their personal wealth enormously. Now they’re looking to get themselves and their money out of the country.

As Hungary prepares to turn the page on Orbán and his associates, it is now grappling with what to do to stem the drain of the vast assets and cash they amassed, partly due to their control of the country’s economy and EU-funded contracts for public infrastructure.

Media reports suggest that three members of his inner circle have started moving their assets abroad to Saudi, Oman, and the UAE in the Middle East, as well as to Australia and Singapore.

Mr Magyar, the new prime minister, has rung the alarm bells, accusing those associated with Fidesz of moving to shield their wealth from accountability before Tisza takes power in the coming weeks.

He accused Orbán-linked oligarchs of transferring tens of millions of forints “to the United Arab Emirates, the United States, Uruguay, and other distant countries” and called on the chief prosecutor, the police chief and the head of the tax office to “detain the criminals” and “not allow them flee” to countries from which they could not be extradited.

He singled out the family of Lorinc Meszáros — one of Orbán’s closest friends, whose rise from being a gas fitter to being one of Hungary’s richest men was fuelled in part by public procurement contracts — as one of those looking to get out with their assets intact.

He claimed several oligarch families had already left and others had taken their children from school and were arranging personal security ahead of their departure.

Magyar has repeatedly alleged that potentially incriminating documents are being destroyed during Orbán’s last days in power. Hungary, he says, has been “plundered, betrayed, looted, indebted, and ruined”.

Sadly, Hungary and its people have not heard the last of Orbán and his toadies.

Unusual punishment for political petulance

US president Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on March 3, 2026, in Washington. Picture: Mark Schiefelbein/AP.

The vainglorious reign of Donald Trump has been characterised by cantankerousness and child-like petulance in seeking revenge against those perceived to have criticised the administration’s agenda.

German chancellor Friedrich Merz is the latest to find himself on the wrong end of Trump’s vitriol.

Merz had the audacity last week to comment that Iran “was humiliating America” in the current conflict between the two. Already stung by the lack of any backing for his war against Iran from his Nato allies, Trump took the biggest stick he could find with which to beat Merz and his country.

The Pentagon announced last Friday it was withdrawing 5,000 US troops based in Germany. On the following day, Trump said that was only the beginning.

His move has not only stunned European leaders, but alarmed fellow Republicans who have expressed dismay at the decision. In an unusual move, the Republicans who chair the armed services committees in Congress — Mississippi senator Roger Wicker and Alabama representative Mike Rogers — issued a joint statement expressing their concern. They maintained that Germany had stepped up its response to Operation Epic Fury — the military name for the operation against Iran — by providing seamless access, basing, and overflight for operations against Iran.

This is in direct contrast to Spain and Italy, both of whom have also drawn the US president’s wrath with their loud criticism of the war. Indeed, a leaked Pentagon email indicated it wanted to punish Spain by suspending its Nato membership.

And yet because Merz is not fully toeing the Trump line, he and his country are being punished for a small example of what might be termed ‘loose talk’.

The move is also contrary to America’s best interests in maintaining a strong deterrent force in Europe to help deter other conflicts from ever beginning.