Apprehension on Brexit deepens - Threatened by scornful indifference

Just as it is tempting to ignore the harbingers of autumn, it is tempting to ignore increasingly grim Brexit speculation. After all, even those who appreciate Monty Python’s slapdash fantasy can endure only so much of Jacob Rees-Mogg. Life might be even more cheering if summer went on forever or if we could dismiss the prospect of a no-deal or hard Brexit, but we cannot. This deepening apprehension is made unavoidable by the fast-approaching March divorce date. Unsettling uncertainty cannot be avoided — an unfortunate reality strengthened by the latest warning from the Central Bank and one exacerbated by England’s central bank.

Our central bank has warned that a no-deal or a hard Brexit would mean we would face the incalculable costs of the UK’s departure far sooner than has been imagined, and that this would bring considerable short-term disruption. This sobering intervention follows an earlier central bank warning that a hard Brexit could cost 40,000 jobs over a decade and shrink our economy by more than 3% over that period. It also warns that optimism around growth figures and budgetary flexibility would not survive a no-deal or a hard Brexit. This chastening analysis cannot be dismissed with the usual it’ll-be-alright-on-the-night bluff. There is far too much at stake.