Energy forecasts - Radical shift on energy usage needed

BLEAK forecasts that petrol prices could soar to €5 a litre at the pumps within four years are certain to concentrate the minds of motorists and homeowners who are already paying through the nose for energy products.

As crude oil resources become scarcer and demand rises inexorably, spiralling prices will ultimately force governments to revise economic strategies, compel energy-dependent industries to adopt new production methods, and drive individuals to use more efficient heating and transport systems.

According to experts, whose crystal ball vision of the future is bleak in the extreme, there can be no doubt the relentless surge in oil and gas prices, triggered by the Iranian-US nuclear crisis, is set to continue.

If the scenario outlined at a conference at the University of Limerick (UL) becomes reality, as seems likely to happen, it will inevitably result in a radical re-think of popular attitudes to energy usage.

It will, for instance, result in a dramatic transformation in global transportation systems. Air travel will become more expensive. Huge, gas-guzzling trucks, among the most wasteful uses of diminishing oil resources, will no longer be economical on the roads.

A higher proportion of commodities will be shipped by water. Public transport will become increasingly important. More buses will be demanded and more railways will have to be built.

In the workplace, more employees will operate from home rather than being stuck for hours in never-ending traffic jams as they drive to and from the job.

Given Ireland’s heavy dependence on imported oil and gas, this grim scenario represents a loud wake-up call for both the Government and the public at large.

It is open to question, however, if a Coalition that has been notoriously weak in its dealings with the oil conglomerates, and shamefully slow to stimulate alternative energy sources such as wind power and bio-diesel, has the political vision to respond in time to the alarm bells now ringing across Europe and around the globe.

In the words of one expert, the world has allowed itself to drift into a “benign energy war”. According to Mathew Simmons, demand has grown too fast, costs have more than doubled, and estimates of “proven reserves” were illusory. Meanwhile, global demand is growing as the vast economies of China and India expand.

Similarly, Professor Austin Darragh of UL warned motorists they could face the prospect of paying as much as €5 per litre on petrol station forecourts before 2010.

In this critical situation, it is imperative for Ireland to develop the proven resources of natural gas waiting to be tapped off the west coast. And if that means working out a compromise to the Mayo pipeline controversy, no time should be lost.

Furthermore, there are compelling arguments for clamping down on this country’s expanding fleet of gas-guzzling four-wheel-drive SUVs, especially as they seem to be used primarily for running children to and from school. In a nation so reliant on oil imports, they are a costly anachronism.

As far as Ireland’s energy users are concerned, the bitter irony of the global energy crisis is that the Government is the chief beneficiary of higher prices for petrol, diesel, fuel oil and home heating products. With every increase, the Exchequer creams 40% off the top in duties and excise.

This administration’s insatiable appetite for taxpayers’ money is unsustainable and unconscionable. In rip-off Ireland, there is a compelling case to be made for softening the impact on consumers by capping a system which, as currently operated by Government, is tantamount to highway robbery.