Poll results – Election surprises in store

APART from the possibility of an upset in the European elections, the omens augur unexpectedly well for Fianna Fáil on election day next month.

This is according to the results of the Irish Examiner/Prime Time opinion poll on the European and local elections and the citizenship referendum in the South constituency, previously Munster.

The local elections are likely not to be the disaster predicted for Fianna Fáil, and the citizenship referendum could be swung, although by a very slight margin.

Surprisingly, at the moment, the party is far from looking at a wipe-out in the local elections, and instead is about holding its own, and at 39% is nine points ahead of Fine Gael in the constituency.

As expected, Sinn Féin is maintaining its momentum and with a strong showing of 8% has made significant strides in the constituency, much to the discomfort of the Labour Party which only managed to achieve 10% of the support in this poll.

The good showing by Independent candidates, ahead of both the Greens and the PDs, indicates that local issues will be crucial.

Without any doubt, the most interest will be in the European elections and an upset could be caused by Independent candidate Kathy Sinnott, the prominent disability campaigner who almost made it to the Dáil in the General Election of 2002.

Currently at 13%, she poses a major threat to Fianna Fáil veteran Gerry Collins, who managed a dismal 15%. If her performance continues at this rate, she would take the last seat in the constituency where the number of seats has been cut from four to three.

Mr Collins is, at the very least, facing strenuous competition to retain his seat.

Victory in this outing would be poetic justice for Ms Sinnott, especially as it looks like she could take a Fianna Fáil seat, having tantalisingly failed to do so in the General Election by a handful of votes.

The fact that Pat Cox, another Independent, will not be seeking re-election, should help her cause considerably, given that she will benefit from her high profile and previous experience at the hustings, and attract a swathe of his vote.

It would have been surprising had Fianna Fáil’s Brian Crowley not been returned at the head of this poll, and with 30%, his seat appears comfortably secured for another term. However, a major marker against any question of complacency should be put down in his camp, as Fine Gael’s Simon Coveney is only 4% behind him.

It is reasonable to predict a direct swap between retiring MEP John Cushnahan and his FG colleague, given the poll outcome.

Despite what appeared to be a foregone conclusion, the citizenship referendum seems likely to just barely squeeze through by the slimmest of margins, although it is too close to call and there are still three weeks left to polling day.