Edel McGinley: The far-right do not need to win an election to influence politics 

Fringe ideas are taking hold as the Overton window moves, but research shows that most people are more inclusive than ever

People protest during a rally called by Campact and Fridays for Future named 'Time to Act: Stop the AfD!' in Berlin. Picture John MacDougall/AFP via Getty Images

The gains made by Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party should worry us all. 

Not just because of what they stand for, but because of what it says about how the most extreme far-right ideas can move from the fringes into the mainstream.

At Hope and Courage Collective, our research tells us that the far-right do not need to win an election to influence politics. 

On the contrary, narratives that were once fringe are shaping the political conversation here in Ireland.

How does this happen? 

Fringe ideas begin to appear in our social media feeds. They are repeated, shared, and amplified. They reach millions of people. 

We see them over and over. They start to feel familiar and become normalised.

An amplified post can be picked up by the media and turned into a political talking point within hours. 

Before we know it, the conversation has shifted. 

This is how the Overton window moves. 

Overton is a metric of what the public finds politically acceptable. 

Narratives and ideas are laundered into the mainstream, not in one dramatic leap, but in slow incremental steps. 

The boundaries of what is considered acceptable are pushed a little further each time.

Ideas that seemed unacceptable yesterday become part of the mainstream and can become the policies of tomorrow.

The AfD has benefited from high-profile support and amplification on X from Elon Musk, pushing their messages beyond their base, shaping narratives, and influencing politics beyond borders. 

Ireland is also being influenced by these international networks.

Hope and Courage Collective’s Ireland in Focus Research 2025 (April 2026) shows how these online conversations are shaping narratives in Ireland.

Crucially, 75% of narratives referencing Ireland originate from international audiences. 

We therefore must understand online hostility in a wider context rather than a reflection of public sentiment here.

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There are two key lessons. 

The first is that politicians are baited to respond to these narratives, and the second, is that attempting to appease them does not work. 

If we give ground today the demands of tomorrow cannot be met. 

There is no winning point, it simply moves the goalposts. 

The hope of satisfying the far right simply does not work. 

We are already seeing how this can happen in Ireland in the creation and performance of cruel and harsh immigration policies.

On the same day as the AfD results, the Fianna Fáil ‘think-in’, had a focus on new proposals about qualifying for Irish citizenship —to move from five years to eight, with accompanying language tests. 

What is striking is that a proposal nobody was demanding suddenly dominated the political conversation, while core budget debates faded into the background. 

Migrant, asylum, and civil rights groups are calling for these citizenship plans to be scrapped.

But this is not new, these policies are visible in plans to evict more than 50,000 Ukrainian refugees — including removing children from their homes and classrooms, new harsher rules for people seeking safety under the EU pact on migration and asylum, and the denial of working families the ability to reunite with their children.

Ireland’s immigration policies have become hard and hostile, exactly what anti-immigrant activists and far-right actors wanted. 

This series of policy changes over time is evidence of a shift of the Overton window. 

When rights are eroded for one group, we should all pay attention. 

Because once it becomes acceptable for one group, it becomes easier to take them from someone else.

But there is another and much more inspiring story to be told. 

Data from our Ireland in Focus 2025 research shows something very important that gets lost in the noise. 

Public attitudes have become more inclusive year-on-year, despite the loud narratives telling us otherwise. 

The research is based on first-of-a-kind, year-on-year datasets tracking changes in public sentiment between 2024 and 2025.

It shows 66% of people agree that immigrants contribute positively to Irish culture and community, up two percentage points from 2024, and 80% of people agree that black, Asian, and minority ethnic communities face greater barriers to success than white people, up from 75% in 2024. 

This data tells us that the majority of people reject far-right narratives and have real empathy and support across a range of issues.

This same report shows that people are ahead of politics. 

An anti-immigration march, organised by far-right elements, makes its way from Parnell Square to the GPO via O'Connell St, Dublin, last June. Picture: Leah Farrell

That matters. Too often, media coverage and political rhetoric create a false dichotomy — as if Ireland is split between two large, opposing camps.

It isn’t. The loudest voices do not represent the majority. They are just loud because they have a platform and a hate megaphone.

Across the country, every day in communities we see something very different. 

From Donegal to Kerry, from Clare to Wexford, and Tipperary to Dublin, community leaders and ordinary people are making connections, building relationships, and refusing attempts to divide them. 

They are showing that solidarity is stronger than division. They show us that if someone in their community is being scapegoated, they show up and stand beside them no matter what. This is the type of leadership we all must embrace and emulate.

People become vulnerable to politics that offer simple answers when they feel ignored. 

The answer is to solve the problems that are making people anxious and fearful. 

Fundamentally, we all want to live a good life, in homes we can afford, with decent jobs and transport that works. 

We want our children and young people to be supported in school, have safe places to gather, and parks and sports grounds to play in. 

And we want our neighbours, friends, and colleagues to be treated fairly, no matter who they are or where they come from. 

These are not distractions from the fight against the far-right. They are a central part of it. 

Bringing in harsher immigration policies will not deliver homes, it just brings us closer to a politics of hate disguised as ‘common sense’.

The AfD’s gains are a stark warning. 

Ireland has a choice about what happens. 

We can show that democratic politics does not follow the far right down a road of ever greater cruelty. 

We can’t and won’t win there. We must choose a different, more courageous leadership path.

Our communities are already showing us what that path looks like. The challenge now is whether our politics will catch up with them.

• Edel McGinley is executive director at the Hope and Courage Collective. The organisation works with communities, workplaces, and institutions across Ireland to strengthen democracy and build collective resilience in the face of rising far-right hate and disinformation