Louise Burne: All talk, no takeover — the problem with plotting Micheál Martin’s exit

Renewed unrest within Fianna Fáil highlights growing frustration, but leadership challengers still hesitate to make a decisive move

A lot of anger was levelled at the Taoiseach following the Government’s response to the nationwide fuel protests last week. File Picture: Philip Toscano

Last week marked my fifth anniversary as a political journalist in Leinster House.

A lot has changed since 2021. TDs aren’t sitting in the Convention Centre anymore, and the idea of a 2km lockdown is, thankfully, well and truly confined to the history books.

As the growing number of grey hairs on my head reminds me daily, I am no longer in my mid-20s, no longer dying my hair bleach blonde and, somewhere along the way, the four wisdom teeth that were torturing me on my first day in Leinster House were removed.

A lot has also changed politically in those times. The Government changed after a general election, there have been high-profile departures, and the way in which our politics is done has changed utterly.

Fine Gael, the Labour Party, the Social Democrats, and the Green Party have all changed their party leaders. However, not everything is different.

Micheál Martin is still the leader of Fianna Fáil.

If there has been one story that has been omnipresent in my life in the last 260 weeks, it has been the future of Martin and whether or not he will be the leader of his party for much longer.

That story thrust itself back to the forefront of the news agenda this week in the wake of the nationwide fuel protests that divided the country. Like all good protests, it caused disruption and it caused anger. A lot of that anger was levelled at the Taoiseach this week.

There were multiple calls for a parliamentary party meeting, from disenfranchised Fianna Fáil TDs and senators in their WhatsApp group, with the political pressure continuing to rise on the ground in their constituencies. One was hastily arranged for Monday in Leinster House. Many in the party joked that it was only set up after long-term Martin critic John McGuinness offered to organise a meeting for those calling for one in either Kilkenny or Tipperary.

The meeting, which was ultimately held in the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party meeting room in what is referred to as the “five-storey block” in Leinster House, lasted for four hours. It was put in the diary for just two hours.

It heard unhappiness from the parliamentary party about how it was communicated to and not with.

Politicians were told to go out and tell people that the carbon tax increase scheduled for next month was a red line that could not be crossed. That was until Sunday, when it became a red line that could be crossed, and the increase was postponed.

The party had not been adequately consulted, the TDs and senators lamented.

No-confidence vote

The drama ramped up on Tuesday when Michael Healy-Rae went overboard, resigned from his junior ministry, and voted no confidence in the Government. He singled out the Taoiseach in his Dáil speech.

On Wednesday, as weary journalists started to wonder if this was the lull they had been praying for, three young Fianna Fáil TDs decided to stir the pot.

Galway East TD Albert Dolan, 27, Cork East TD James O’Connor, 28, and Tipperary North TD Ryan O’Meara, 31, issued a statement warning of the disconnect between Fianna Fáil and their generation.

“We must face [the] reality that the social contract is strained to breaking point,” they said.

“Too many of our peers see no connection between what happens at the ballot box and what follows in Government.

This disconnect threatens public faith in politics and our democracy. Our responsibility, as members of Fianna Fáil and as legislators, is to help rebuild that connection

The three young bucks insisted that their statement was “not about challenging any individual or singling out any member of Government”.

This one line proved that it was. It was a warning shot to the Taoiseach. It sent the alarm bells off instantly.

Dolan, O’Connor, and O’Meara were hauled into Government Buildings on Wednesday night. By Thursday, none were taking phonecalls.

All the while, Leinster House went into overdrive. Plans to unseat Martin were real, but now not immediate, as anger grew that the statement would push those whose opinion on their leader had shifted firmly back into the middle ground.

As reported earlier this week in this newspaper, it was suggested that up to 20 people would be willing to sign a no-confidence motion in Micheál Martin.

However, there was a caveat. A hero on a white horse had to ride in to save the day. A successor had to say they were willing to lead the troops into battle before the soldiers of destiny would don their armour and rush into battle.

They wanted to make sure someone else would put their neck on the line before they put their necks on the line. There were crickets.

Successors in waiting

While sources in the party insisted that several successors are waiting in the wings to contest the leadership, they just are not ready. Not yet, they said. But they did not say when.

While at times this week a possible heave against Martin felt the closest it had ever been, upon reflection, I had the same feeling following the Jim Gavin fiasco.

In the days after the former Dubs manager withdrew from the party’s calamitous presidential campaign in early October, the parliamentary party were apoplectic.

The Taoiseach had not consulted the party. There was no communication. He was out of touch with his TDs and senators.

You could copy and paste many of this week’s complaints and apply them to October.

This was the final nail in the coffin, they vowed. It was a 50/50 chance that he would be Fianna Fáil leader by the end of 2025. If Jim O’Callaghan moved now, he would be Taoiseach by Christmas.

None of it happened. And this was not the first time Martin called their bluff.

There is no doubt that a cohort in Fianna Fáil wants the Taoiseach gone.

There is also no doubt in my mind that successors are taking stock, considering what to do if next month’s by-elections in Dublin Central and Galway West go pear-shaped, and that they could actually pounce this time.

But the issue is that, if they do not, certain cohorts in Fianna Fáil risk becoming the boys (and girls) who cried wolf.

We have all lost count of the number of times it was Martin’s last few months in charge. 

while it is likely that his time as Fianna Fáil leader is probably coming to an end, the politicians need to either act or quit talking the big talk until they are ready to act

In their books reflecting on their time in politics, both former taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Eoghan Murphy wrote about a team that would work off-site and far from Leinster House on what Varadkar’s campaign to become leader of Fine Gael would look like.

When it was clear Enda Kenny was coming towards the end of the Fine Gael leadership, the team started briefing the media, meeting politicians, and phoning members around the country.

They had their campaign ready to go before Enda made his announcement.

Perhaps, in quiet corners, the same is being done for Fianna Fáil’s next leader, and plans are being hatched.

But continuous false starts help no one and make the politicians calling for the Taoiseach’s head look like their hearts are not in it.

As the will they/won’t they continues within Fianna Fáil, there are two things I know for sure.

The first thing is that Micheál Martin will not be the leader of Fianna Fáil by the time I have completed another five years in Leinster House.

The second is that my grey hairs are going to keep multiplying if his TDs and senators convince me every six weeks that a heave is imminent.