Middle East war could be decided by who runs out of missiles or interceptors first, analysts say

Stockpiles of the most advanced US-made weapons are limited – while few know how large Iran’s arsenal is

A plume of smoke rises following a U.S.-Israeli military strike in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

The outcome and duration of the war in the Middle East may be decided by a grim calculus based on the size of Iran’s drone and missile stocks v vital air defence munitions held by the US, Israel and Gulf states, analysts and officials say.

Since Saturday, Iran and its proxies have sought to counter the intensive joint US and Israeli offensive with more than 1,000 strikes against targets across almost a dozen countries spread over 1,200 miles.