Dorcha Lee: What the end of Unifil means for Lebanon and for Ireland's Defence Forces
The 127th Infantry Battalion on an exercise at the Glen of Imaal as 350 Defence Forces personnel prepare to ship out to Lebanon — one of the last such deployments, as the Unifil mission will end by 2027. Picture: Colin Keegan/Collins
No more red sunsets in the southern hills of Lebanon for our peacekeepers.
No more shouts of ‘groundhog’ to warn of incoming shells impacting close to the whitewashed walls of the Irish compounds.
Soon, there will be no Irish around as dawn breaks to hear the Adhan, the calls to early-morning prayer cascading from minaret to minaret.
The clock is ticking for the withdrawal of Unifil (UN Interim Force in Lebanon).
While Unifil’s mandate was extended by the United Nations Security Council until August 31, 2026, the decision was also taken to phase out the withdrawal of the mission, over the subsequent 12 months.
Deployed in 1978, when Unifil leaves in 2027, it will have lasted 49 years, giving a whole new meaning to the word ‘interim’.
While the support or agreed abstention of the five permanent members of the Security Council was required for Unifil to continue, it must be remembered that the agreement of both belligerent nations — Lebanon and Israel — is also required.
In this case, Israel had flagged that it was withdrawing its agreement for the mission to continue.
If the Security Council wanted to continue with Unifil without the agreement of one or other of the belligerent parties, it would have to come up with a completely new mission, which most probably would be rejected by the use of the US veto.
The extra year is actually an advantage to the Israelis.
With more international support to the Lebanese army, to disarm Hezbollah, and Unifil still occupying the buffer zone, the Israelis can concentrate on Gaza.
The Gaza operation is putting the Israeli armed forces under a lot of strain at present and, no matter what options they take, they are likely to be tied up there for the next 12 months.
A year is a long time, and further extensions of Unifil cannot be ruled out.
However, withdrawing Unifil is a high-risk strategy. If the Lebanese army cannot secure south Lebanon on its own, a gradual return of armed elements to the area is inevitable. The last thing the Israelis want is a post-Unifil situation where armed elements are firing off rockets again at northern Israel.
Completing the return of 60,000 to 80,000 Israeli evacuees to their homes in northern Lebanon is a major objective for the government of Israel, especially in the run-up to the general elections which have to take place before October 23 next year.
While this mission is 74% complete, some areas are still like semi ghost towns, such as Metula, where only 30% of its residents have returned.
After Unifil, should the Lebanese army fail to secure southern Lebanon, Israel’s armed forces will return initially as far as the Litani River, but possibly further north to ensure the security of northern Israel.
Security may not be the only reason why Israel may wish to have a presence in — or indeed control of — part of southern Lebanon.
Like all other countries in the region, Israel has an expanding population, which means ever-increasing demand for water. While some desalination is possible, large-scale desalination is not the solution, as it destroys arable land. Consolidating a northern or eastward expansion of Israel will require securing control of rivers in the area — the Litani, Awali, and Yarmouk rivers come to mind.
The Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, has had a domino effect in shifting the balance of military power in the region.
Backed by the US, Israel seems set to proceed with its annexation of Gaza, the West Bank, all of the Golan Heights, even parts of southern Lebanon and southern Syria.
Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently expressed his sympathy for those diehards who dream of Israel extending from the Nile to the Euphrates.
The extension of a year to the Unifil mandate gives time to reconsider what role our Government wants the Defence Forces to play in future peacekeeping.
The security situation in Europe has utterly changed. The Government has already started to build up our military capabilities.
Part of this involves recruitment for the Defence Forces, including the reserve defence forces. Unless we want to introduce conscription, we need to ensure that service in the Defence Forces will be attractive to potential recruits.
The Commission on the Defence Forces, whose key recommendations have been accepted by Government, envisages an increase from the present 7,557 regular personnel to 11,500 personnel. The biggest attraction of military life for our young men and women is overseas service.
As the strength of the Defence Forces increases, we should be able to regain the capability to participate in peace support operations that we had in the 1980s, when we had 800-850 personnel abroad at any one time.
The flagship of our peacekeeping forces should be a mechanised infantry battalion group equipped and able to function at the cutting edge of Chapter 7 (peace enforcement) missions.
I mention battalion group to allow for combat support subunits, such as a tank company or light artillery battery, missile platoon, or combat engineer platoon, to be attached to the battalion.
In other words, the composition of the battalion group is tailored to meet the operational tasks required of the particular mission.
Without the flagship overseas battalion, we will not be able to attract the number of recruits required.
I reject the idea that we should concentrate just on small, so-called niche or specialist subunits.
These will only give a tiny number of personnel the opportunity to serve overseas. I do not rule them out. For some missions they are ideal.
The not-so-tiny Irish transport companies in Somalia were really professional and highly acclaimed for getting those 500-tonne convoys through under fire. In Bosnia, an Irish-led military police company policed the whole Nato mission.
As our defence capabilities are restored, air and naval units participating in peace-support operations should become the norm, as it is today for our special forces.
Over the years, we were always conscious that Unifil would end some day. While the number of UN missions has declined, the future will be in more missions being run by regional organisations such as the EU, OSCE, Nato, and the African Union.
Some countries avoid sending troops to perceived dangerous missions, to avoid combat casualties. Irish soldiers know that risk-sharing is necessary to participate fully in peacekeeping missions and that the most hardcore missions may require combat. The Irish soldier is not a boy scout or girl guide to be relegated to PG-rated missions.
- Dorcha Lee is a retired army colonel, a veteran peacekeeper, and defence analyst.
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