What is driving Europe's record-breaking 'Cerberus' heatwave and how long will it last?
Hellenic Red Cross workers distribute bottles of water to visitors outside the Acropolis in Athens on July 13, 2023. Picture: Angelos Tzortzinis/ AFP via Getty Images
Meteorologists believe that the current European temperature record may be broken over the coming days, as a heatwave continues to impact the south and east of the continent.
The heatwave, which Italian meteorologists named ‘Cerberus’ after the three-headed monster in Dante's Inferno, is already impacting popular tourist destinations across Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, Greece, Turkey, and Croatia.
Here, we look at what is driving the heatwave, how long it is likely to last, and where has been most affected:
The ongoing heatwave in Europe, scientists say, is the result of a stationary high-pressure system or anticyclone.
Anticyclones are a slow-moving meteorological phenomenon wherein air from the upper atmosphere moves downward, resulting in dry and settled weather, with minimal wind and cloud cover.
Increased sea temperatures are another contributing factor. In a normal year, winds would blow cooler air from the Mediterranean inland, lowering land temperatures in the process. But his year, Mediterranean sea temperatures of up to 30C have been recorded — 4C higher than average in some places.
Mediterranean bakes in intense heat
— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) July 14, 2023
Heatwaves will become more frequent, intense & longer, per #IPCC #ClimateReport
By 2050, about 1/2 of European population may face high or very high risk of heat stress in summer
WMO roundup of July extreme weatherhttps://t.co/wHR6Vgg7UA pic.twitter.com/nBv3I0oR8z
This anticyclone, which has now settled across Spain and much of the Mediterranean, appears to have formed over the dry Sahara Desert in Northern Africa, meaning the air within it is even hotter and drier than usual.
Because of the intensity of this anticyclone, extremely high temperatures are being reported across southern and eastern Europe.
On Friday, the Italian health ministry issued a red warning for 10 major cities, including Rome, Florence, and Bologna.
Temperatures above 40C have already been recorded across the country in recent days, and the red warning is set to be extended to further cities and regions this the weekend.
The ministry warned people against going out in the midday sun. People have also been urged to drink at least two litres of water a day and to avoid coffee and alcohol, which can be dehydrating.
According to the European Space Agency (ESA), temperatures on the island of Sicily may climb as high as 48C this weekend, meaning Europe’s all-time temperature high of 48.8C — recorded on Sicily in 2021 — may be broken.
Temperatures in Sardinia are also likely to surpass 44C over the coming week.
Spain too is sweltering under the current heatwave.
Daytime temperatures of up to 45C and overnight temperatures of 25C have been recorded throughout the south and east the country in recent days. Thirteen of Spain’s autonomous communities have now been put under high-temperature alerts.
Earlier this week, a satellite image captured by the EU's Copernicus Sentinel mission revealed that the land surface temperature in Spain’s Extremadura region hit 60C on Tuesday.
Spain’s weather service also said more extreme temperatures are forecast for the coming days, particularly in the south and east.
Greece has also been grappling with temperatures of up to 40C. Earlier this week, the Greek government prohibited access to nature reserves and forests to reduce the risk of wildfires.
Several municipalities have opened air-conditioned areas in public buildings for people to shelter from the heat, and the country’s public hospitals and emergency response personnel have been put on standby.
The region of Thessaly saw a temperature of 43C on Thursday, and the capital city of Athens is forecast to bake in 41C heat on Friday.
The Athens Acropolis, one the world’s most famous archaeological sites, has also been temporarily closed to tourists.
Most of France, with the exception of the regions of Brittany and Normandy, is forecast to see temperatures of at least 30C today and tomorrow. Tourists visiting country’s two biggest cities of Paris and Marseille can expect the mercury to hit 33C this afternoon.
The southwest of the country is expected to be hotter still — up to 40C in some areas.
In Turkey, the Turkish State Meteorological Service has warned that temperatures may climb as high as 43C in the provinces of Antalya, Aydın, and Manisa this weekend.
Other countries have also been affected.
Temperatures across Portugal have been consistently above 30C since Monday.
In Cyprus, temperatures are forecast to reach 41C on Saturday, and in Croatia, Serbia, and Romania, forecasters are warning of temperatures of up to 39C on Sunday.
In Prague, where temperatures are usually around 22C this time of year, temperatures are forecast to reach 36C tomorrow.
The Cerberus heatwave is expected to continue for at least another fortnight, though intense heat may persist for even longer in some areas.
But the end of Cerberus may not be the end of Europe's weather woes.
This year has already been a record-breaking year for temperatures worldwide.
Globally, the week of June 3 to June 10 was, on average, the hottest week of all time.
Indeed, when all is said and done, 2023 may turn out to be the hottest year on record.
And the ongoing impact of climate change, together with this year's El Nino event, means the continent is likely to experience further periods of intense heat before 2023 is out.
Check out the Irish Examiner's WEATHER CENTRE for regularly updated short and long range forecasts wherever you are.
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