Daniel McConnell: Ryan needs to prune back his optimism for Green growth

Party leader Eamon Ryan made the bold promise that by 2025, Ireland could power itself on a sunny day by solar power alone. Picture: Brian Lawless

A political party’s national conference or Ard Fheis as some insist on calling it is always an important marker.

If the party leadership is under pressure, the conference can be fraught with difficulty as they seek to face down dissidents or rebels.

If a party is riding high, the keynote address of a leader is a genuine high point for both themselves and the party, able to portray an air of confidence to the public at large looking in.

It is never easy being the third wheel in Government and coming to the end of conference season, the Green Party gathering in Athlone had a decidedly understated tone compared to Fine Gael last week, Sinn Féin a few weeks ago and Fianna Fáil back at the end of September.

Albeit a smaller and more intimate affair, the Green gathering was important as it was the first in-person gathering in three years because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Ryan and his colleagues were swept into Government in 2020 after a Green wave saw the party achieve a record 12 Dáil seats.

In his keynote leader’s address, Ryan made two bold pledges. One was that come the next election the Greens will take 10% of the vote and have up to 100 councillors elected across the country.

His point was that Green Party policies are no longer on the fringes, but are becoming mainstream and his party is in a prime place to capitalise on that move.

It is never easy being the third wheel in Government, says Daniel McConnell. Picture: Sam Boal/Rollingnews.ie

Sounds good but the latest Business Post Red C poll has the Greens stuck on just 5%.

The promise appears out of reach of the reality.

The second bold promise Ryan made was that by 2025, Ireland could power itself on a sunny day by solar power alone.

But the difficulty is that the Climate Advisory Group says delivery is lagging way behind the promised targets, and that we are backloading the work that will need to be done to make our targets.

Ryan was pressed on Sunday about the pledge to have 1 million electric-powered cars by 2030 in Ireland, insisting that the country will get “very close to that” offering a figure of about 950,000 by then. The current figure is about 67,000.

Again, the promised targets sound good, but delivery is lagging behind.

Interestingly, Ryan on TV did not rule out tax breaks for developers to allow them improve delivery but said there must also be a stick to force them not to hoard land to allow it increase in value, despite the dire need for housing.

Eamon Ryan can draw some satisfaction that delivery aside, he has won the principled argument within government to make the State far more climate change ready. Picture: Brian Lawless

Ryan also said he, the Taoiseach and the Tánaiste will be meeting next week to begin the discussions around the possible reallocation of portfolios confirming that Roderic O’Gorman could have his workload reduced, a tacit acknowledgement that he is struggling.

Ryan can draw some satisfaction that delivery aside, he has won the principled argument within government to make the State far more climate change ready, driving structural changes in everything from transport to agriculture, despite fierce resistance from within Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

Ryan in seeking to get that 10% vote next time, says he does not believe that smaller parties tend to pay the most for their time in government.

Given his party was entirely wiped out in 2011 following its stint in power with Fianna Fáil, such optimism like many of his promises may simply be a bridge too far.