Daniel McConnell: Could the new Dáil constituencies result in a Sinn Féin majority?

Seat bonuses have benefitted Fine Gael in 2011 and Fianna Fáil in 2002 and 2007 and could easily push Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald into the Taoiseach’s office from a significant position of strength.

Anyone for a Sinn Féin overall majority? Sounds crazy right? Possibly but then again maybe not.

News that the Dáil could have as many as 21 extra seats raises a number of significant questions as to the likely formation of the next government.

With Sinn Féin now polling consistently in the mid to high 30s, they stand to be the big beneficiaries of any potential seat bonuses which any boundary redraw is likely to throw up.

With more seats required, we are likely to see existing small three-seat constituencies increase to four-seaters, four-seaters become five-seaters, and existing five-seat constituencies like Dublin Fingal, Kerry and Donegal could be split into two three-seaters.

While the constitution does permit six-seater constituencies but this is not being considered according to senior figures in Government. 

Sinn Féin, which saw a huge number of its TDs elected on the first count in 2020 with whopper surpluses could stand to benefit significantly from such changes.

Think of it this way, if Sinn Féin picked up two out of five seats in one constituency like Donegal in 2020, they could if the bonus kicks in stand to pick up four out of the six seats next time around.

Such seat bonuses have benefitted Fine Gael in 2011 and Fianna Fáil in 2002 and 2007 and could easily push Mary Lou McDonald into the Taoiseach’s office from a significant position of strength.

What is clear is that the introduction of such a large number of new seats is needed to keep in line with the Constitution which dictates there must be one TD for every 20,000 to 30,000 citizens, on foot of the significant population increase as recorded in the latest census.

What is also clear is that the majority of those new seats will be concentrated in the large urban areas such as Dublin, Cork and the rest of the east coast which has seen an explosion in population in recent years.

Applying this requirement to the practical realities of Dáil constituencies and deciding where the additional seats will go will be the job of an electoral commission which will have to report by next July, ahead of the local and European elections in 2024.

While the new commission will try and maintain constituencies along county boundaries, this may not be universally practicable to ensure the constitutional requirement is adhered to.

There is likely to be some controversial redraws bringing their fair share of winners and losers.