Daniel McConnell: Very fabric of Irish social cohesion to be tested like never before

The reality of the challenge of accepting into Ireland many thousands of Ukrainian people has not yet dawned

A man walks on the debris of a burning house, destroyed after a Russian attack in Kharkiv, Ukraine. In the initial aftermath of the invasion, the national sense of outrage was palpable here. Picture: Felipe Dana/AP

"This is the biggest one, by a country mile.”

That was the stark admission from a senior civil servant the other day as to the scale of the challenge of accepting into Ireland many thousands of Ukrainian people, fleeing the war in their homeland.

The official I spoke with has played a central role in responding to the financial crash and recovery, Brexit, and then Covid.

Given the extraordinary strain each of those crises placed on the country, to say that the large influx of people is the greatest challenge of them all is saying something.

But it is a warning I sense the majority of Irish people have not yet grasped. The reality of what is coming has not yet dawned.  

In the initial aftermath of the invasion, the national sense of outrage was palpable.

We instinctively wanted to help.

The response to the mass displacement of more than 10m people from Ukraine has been phenomenal.

On a massive scale, the public, great and ordinary alike, have come forward in huge numbers to open their hearts and homes to strangers in their hour of desperate need.

Shaped perhaps by this country’s tragic history of exporting its young and poor to the four corners of the globe in its many hours of need, the outpouring of pledges from the public is more easily explained.

From the Government, we have heard very strong and clear messages condemning the Russian invasion from the outset.

It has been very encouraging to hear and see the Government at the fore of pushing for the harshest possible sanctions against Russia for what it has done.

It has been less heartening that Ireland has pulled back and abstained from contributing fully to the EU’s support package to Ukraine, on the basis of our notional stance of neutrality.

Such abstentionism was called out by Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy during his call to EU leaders on Thursday.

That aside, it has been heartening to hear ministers pledge to do 'whatever it takes' to reach out in solidarity and friendship to those people who have already made it here, and the many thousands who will follow them from Ukraine.

Much has been made of the words of Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe that money “will not be an issue” in response to a question this week as to how Ireland will financially deal with the large influx of displaced people.

On one level, what Donohoe said was perfectly legitimate, laudable, and expected, given the clear desire of the Irish people to play their part in response to Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine.

However, on another level, the meaning of Donohoe’s commitment is highly complex, extremely expensive, and most definitely not temporary.

With upwards of 200,000 people potentially arriving here, most with complex needs and suffering from severe trauma, the initial wave of empathy is already beginning to turn to legitimate queries as to how we as a country will cope.

The early estimates from within Government is the cost of this crisis will run to the “hundreds of millions” but could be even higher, depending on how long people stay here.

As Leo Varadkar told the Dáil, in the past few weeks alone, we have seen the population of the entire country grow by up to 2%. It is a phenomenal challenge.

He said this crisis is going to have serious impacts — on education, on healthcare, on housing, on social protection, on public finances, even on things such as greenhouse gas emissions.

“Absolutely all our calculations change when your population increases by 1% or 2%, even in the course of a few weeks,” he said.

While, as I said, we as a country have opened our hearts and homes to the people from Ukraine, one senses the mood is already beginning to shift given that stark warning from Varadkar.

This is not a temporary challenge, say like Covid or even the financial crash. This is likely to be a permanent structural change to Irish society.

As Children’s Minister Roderic O’Gorman warned on Virgin Media’s Tonight Show the other night, people who have offered their homes can expect them to be there for at least a year, but most likely longer than that.

And that is on a voluntary basis. There are no plans to subsidise those who take people in.

The mounting fear among ministers and TDs is that the current wave of goodwill will dissipate and will be replaced by resentment and anger as existing poor services are placed under even further pressure.

The truth is that the very fabric of Irish social cohesion is set to be tested like never before.

We can’t house our own at the moment so what impact will this influx have on the Government’s ambitious/unachievable Housing for All plan?

What will the 20- and 30-somethings still living at home with mum and dad really think when their goal of owning a house gets even more expensive?

Will that solidarity hold? It is an open question.

Moreover, Donohoe’s promise that money will not be an issue has sparked some concern as to how this will all be paid for.

Perhaps conditioned by the massive explosion in spending during the Covid-19 pandemic, (circa €32bn), Donohoe and Michael McGrath have allowed people become conditioned to the idea of money being easy to come by.

One senior TD half quipped with me the other day that he was going to start asking for “ridiculous” stuff as he is likely to get it, or most of it at least, given the seeming willingness to spend big.

Watching McGrath stand in for the absent Micheál Martin at leaders’ questions, one noted that every question asked of him was for more money in light of the rampant scourge of inflation at present.

As interesting as were the questions, what was significant was how he responded.

There was little enough sign of a prudent money minister dampening down expectation.

What we got was McGrath making soothing noises to most if not all about how things can be examined. There is a distinct air of make-believe about much of this.

Let’s not forget that McGrath needs to ensure that the emergency spending on Covid gets pulled back this year and next.

Easier said than done.

Especially when you consider more than 45,000 people remain on the pandemic unemployment payment.

When you consider our national debt is now topping a quarter of a trillion euro, the whole thing is beginning to feel like a runaway train.

My point being is that by seeking to do right by the Ukrainian people, laudable as it is, the Government is creating a major dilemma for itself.

Unlike during Covid, where there was for the most part a consensus in favour of the approach taken, this crisis is completely different.

Let me be clear, I am not suggesting we don’t take these people in or do whatever we can to help them.

We must do so.

The point is that to deliver on that promise is going to ask an awful lot of the Irish people who may be happy to do so now, but less so in 12 months’ time.