Can the UK ‘live with Covid’ and should we follow suit?

Such an approach would be a ‘huge experiment’ and put young and unvaccinated at risk

UK PM Boris Johnson: Taking a calculated risk. Picture: Daniel Leal-Olivas/PA Wire

Covid-19 infection rates are higher in the UK than in Ireland but more people are fully vaccinated there. Is Boris Johnson taking a calculated risk by preparing to embrace ‘living with Covid’ and ending public health restrictions in England in the next fortnight?

The more infectious Delta variant is surging strongly in the UK, in particular in Scotland, followed by England, Northern Ireland and Wales — in total 24,000 cases were reported on Sunday, with 350 people in hospital and 15 deaths.

By comparison, 562 new Covid cases were confirmed in Ireland on Sunday — the highest number since early May — and 51 people remain in hospital, with 14 in intensive care, while the daily number of deaths is not available.

While the UK is around four weeks ahead of Ireland in terms of a Delta surge, more people are fully vaccinated there, 64% of UK adults compared to almost 50% of Irish adults.

Despite the surge, from 19 July, working from home and mask-wearing will no longer be required in England and mass events, including nightclubs and festivals, will make a return, while Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales may not open up as quickly.

Many within the UK scientific community, however, have warned that allowing community transmission to surge was like building new ‘variant factories’.

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UK-based Professor of Public Health Martin McKee said the British government needed to clarify the acceptable level of deaths and hospitalisations if it adopted a ‘living with Covid’ approach.

The idea was branded as a "huge experiment" by UCC Professor of Public Health Ivan Perry, who said Ireland needs to hold its nerve and maximise vaccine uptake before considering any further reopening.

He described the UK approach to Covid as “loose” and “reckless” and said plans to open up and ‘live with Covid’ would bring significant risks for Ireland.

To put the UK situation into context, ProfPerry said there were more cases on one day there last week than in the whole of Europe combined.

The reality will be many people being sick and, in some cases, dying with Covid.

“We have to be concerned about long-Covid. Even in young people with mild illness initially they can develop significant symptoms up to six months later,” he said.

He alluded to a recent study in Nature Medicine that found that half of 16-30 year-olds experienced long-Covid symptoms, including fatigue, shortness of breath, memory and concentration problems, months after a mild infection.

“If we decide to live with Covid now, it would be a huge experiment, putting our unvaccinated population, our young people and children at great risk,” Professor Perry said.

Taking a precautionary approach and accelerating the vaccine rollout over the next three to four months was the safest option to get infection rates down to manageable levels, he said:

For the sake of a few months we need to hold our nerve.

Nobody, he said, wants to see a tribunal of inquiry into Covid down the road.

“We could be facing a tribunal of inquiry in five years time if we were to see thousands of people with long-Covid and we would be looking back and asking why didn’t we use the tools that we had at our disposal."