Contemplating the future tells tale of ‘two Chinas’

Richard N Haass looks at how the speed of China’s slowdown has brought what the country is and what the future may hold for it into sharp focus, with two very different tales emerging.

TO ANYONE over the age of 60 who follows world affairs, the term “two Chinas” recalls the post-1949 competition for diplomatic recognition waged by mainland (“Red”) China and Taiwan, or, more formally, the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of China.

By the early 1970s, just about every country fell in line with the People’s Republic’s demand that it alone be recognised as the legitimate sovereign government of China. The mainland was simply too large and too important economically and strategically to alienate.