The cases for and against ratification of fiscal treaty

The evidence for the Government being able to return to the bond markets by 2013 is positive, writes Tom O’Connor

The cases for and against ratification of fiscal treaty

THE Government has been keen to point out that Ireland would not be able to draw money from the European Stability Mechanism if it doesn’t ratify the fiscal treaty. Sinn Féin, the United Left Alliance, and groups of other economists — most notably Terence McDonough of NUI Galway, Michael Taft of Unite, and Andy Story from UCD — suggest there are choices post-2013 regarding further bailout funding, even if we reject the treaty.

In this context, it’s important to look at the current bailout and overall government debt to see where this will leave us when the money runs out in 2013. Ireland owed €170bn at the end of last year. The breakdown was: €85.3bn in outstanding government bonds; €35.7bn used as programme assistance from the EU/IMF deal; €28.3bn over its promissory note to Anglo and Irish Nationwide; state savings owed to post office book holders and other savers of €14.1bn; and other debt of €5.9bn.

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