Elaine Loughlin: Dream of a united Ireland cannot be fulfilled without timely, comprehensive research

Significant divergences between north and south would have to be hammered out ahead of any unity poll

Martin dismissed Sinn Féin’s proposed bill, that would have directed the Government to produce a Green Paper on a united Ireland, as ‘not credible’. Picture: Liam McBurney/PA

Sometimes discussions around a united Ireland can feel a bit like the lotto plan.

Most of us all know exactly how we would spend our winnings when the lucky numbers come out, we are full sure this will happen, we just don’t get around to the essential part — buying a ticket.

Political parties, for all the talk, must decide whether a united Ireland is an actual possibility that leaders want to doggedly pursue or more of a vague dreamlike aspiration that gets floated about from time to time.

In the Dáil this week, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said producing a Green Paper on a united Ireland would do little to achieve the objective of bringing together north and south, and would instead recommit us to an approach that has failed repeatedly over the past 100 years.

He was responding to a call from Sinn Féin, backed by the majority of the opposition, to commission and complete work within 18 months that would analyse and form policy on the reality of seeking to unify the island.

Mary Lou McDonald said her party’s “historic” bill, which ultimately failed to pass a Dáil vote on Wednesday night, would have amounted to the first ever piece of legislation directing the government to start planning for a united Ireland.

“Peace is secure, it is robust, resilient, and commands wide support, and it is now time to write the next chapter, the chapter of reunification,” Mc Donald said.

Mr Martin dismissed the 18-month deadline to produce analysis on everything from the economic impacts; to the parallel education systems, policing arrangements, and health services; the issue of public service pay; the replacement of sterling; as well as the more nebulous but thorny subjects of legacy, culture and identity as “not credible”.

Setting timelines has the potential to further alienate cohorts who already feel their identity is disregarded.

Sufficient time, of course, must be allocated to listen to and recognise all voices.

But if a united Ireland is truly the endpoint that political parties want to reach, a hyper-focused approach must be adopted at some point.

Emer Currie, whose father Austin was the only person to have served as a government minister in both Northern Ireland and in the Dáil, acknowledged that we are living in a period of “constitutional reappraisal”.

Change across the pond

However, it has been decisions taken in Britain, not on this island, that have brought constitutional questions back to the forefront of public debate.

Brexit has already acted as an accelerator when it comes to conversations around change and the future of the union.

The rise of the Reform party has again reignited a discussion around the breakup of the UK, with leader Nigel Farage stating earlier this year that a second independence referendum in Scotland would be “quite reasonable” if the issue became “relevant” in future.

The fact that Farage now finds himself contesting a by-election against a candidate who goes by the name Count Binface indicates just how unpredictable and utterly bonkers politics has become across the water. (Former actor and far-right agitator Laurence Fox also said he will run.)

The emergence of a Reform-led government after the next general election in the UK could spark turmoil by raking up delicate constitutional questions.

In the Dáil, Ms Currie argued that if there is to be another chapter in the constitutional story of this island, it should not be driven by decisions taken elsewhere and instead it should be shaped here, as an expression of the hopes, ambitions, and aspirations of the people who share this island.

The legitimate questions many people in Northern Ireland are asking about the future cannot be ignored, (nor can) their frustration with repeated political stalemate and the impact Brexit has had on how they see their place in these islands and in Europe.

“If you are ask people to consider constitutional change, whether they live in Castleknock or Castlederg, we cannot speak only to their sense of identity or longing but to their everyday lives, jobs, healthcare, pensions, their children’s education and their economic security.”

It is therefore essential that citizens north and south are not ill-prepared if they are forced to confront the vista of a united Ireland due to a highly volatile political landscape across the Irish sea.

Shared island unit

The Government has stressed that considerable work is already underway through the shared island unit, which the coalition believe is the most appropriate vehicle to advance the cause.

During the Dáil debate this week, the Taoiseach took issue with the fact that no one on the Sinn Féin benches had even acknowledged the existence of the unit, which he claimed is doing work on a scale like never before. That may be true, but Martin should look into his own heart and recognise that his shared island pet project has been almost operating in secret, such is the lack of visibility around it.

The dearth of ambition around promoting the shared island unit has been a niggling annoyance among many in Fianna Fáil.

It led to rather colourful language in a private WhatsApp group, with Louth TD Erin McGreehan posting: “Fuck Fine Gael fuck Sinn Féin, we are Fianna Fáil we are the Republican Party. There would not be peace on this island without us and the leaders we had.”

She and others in the parliamentary party, were responding to an announcement from Simon Harris that Fine Gael will develop a “blueprint for a unified island” by November.

But the undercurrent of frustration centred around a lack of visibility of the shared island unit.

“The dog work isn’t sexy,” is how one Fianna Fáil member put it this week, but with €1.5bn set aside for cross-party collaboration, more should be made of it, is the general consensus.

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O’Neill speaking to the media at Leinster House before their bill was defeated. Picture: Leah Farrell/RollingNews.ie

Recently for example, a significant funding announcement for 12 new projects went under the radar.

Journalists could have been summoned out to Connolly Station to highlight the €193m contribution to Derry-Belfast-Dublin rail infrastructure and a further €35m investment to continue the Dublin-Belfast hourly-frequency rail service.

Or a press briefing could have been held along the banks of Ulster Canal to draw attention to a €30m contribution to the project. A photocall along our rugged coastline would have tied in nicely with the €1.6m contribution to Great Lighthouses of Ireland.

But a press release on the €377m bundle of funding was discretely dropped via email while most political reporters were watching the Taoiseach take Leaders’ Questions in the Dáil.

As Simon Harris put it, constitutional change cannot be driven by deadlines or arbitrary timelines.

But the reality of life in a future united Ireland must be fully explored and debated across the island so citizens are fully aware of the realities. We need to step further along the path beyond the romantic ideal of a nation once again.

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As part of the shared island unit, the ERSI has been quietly carrying out detailed work.

A high-level comparison of the economies of Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland found that household disposable income in Ireland is 18.3% higher than the six counties as of 2018, and the gap has widened over time.

In terms of wages, the data show a positive gap favouring the Republic of Ireland, with hourly earnings 36% higher than in Northern Ireland in 2022.

On a per capita basis, residents north of the border pay significantly lower personal income tax than those in the Republic of Ireland — €2,980 in Northern Ireland, compared to €6,725 per capita here.

This is just one tiny slice of research that sheds light on significant divergences north and south, all of which would have to be hammered out ahead of any unity poll.