#GE16 analysis - Election is not chaos or crisis, just opportunity

In the tired atmosphere of the 48 hours since the ballot boxes were opened, nonsense has been talked about a grand coalition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

Far from being an inevitable outcome, the increased mandate of Fianna Fáil is predicated on this not happening. If it transpires, it will not echo but exceed the political misread of Eamon Gilmore and Labour in 2011.

There is no political crisis arising from these election results. The Government continues in office until a taoiseach is nominated and appointed by the president. We have neither chaos nor crisis. What we do have is an unprecedented political situation which is as much opportunity as challenge.

Firstly Fine Gael, diminished and demoralised but still the largest party, will wish to continue in office.

The Taoiseach’s office is the essential shelter, necessary now, for Enda Kenny’s survival. If he loses office, his leadership is over. A heave is unlikely in Fine Gael. Those most likely to undertake it bear the stripes on their back of the failed attempt in 2009.

They see now, too, the pointlessness of Labour’s removal of Eamon Gilmore. The damage he inflicted was done and the remedy was too little, too late.

Taoiseach Enda Kenny talks to RTÉ News. #mayo #ge16https://t.co/5fy1tlHHlb

— RTÉ News (@rtenews) February 27, 2016

Fianna Fáil, having doubled their Dáil seats, have an increased responsibility. But their responsibility is shared by every other member of the Dáil. Groups including Sinn Féin, Anti-Austerity Alliance, People before Profit, and Independents line up to say what they won’t do, but are never seriously questioned about their equal responsibility as elected legislators to provide government.

They want the status of Caesar’s wife and the privilege of sitting in the judgment seat, but are not prepared to fulfil obligations which may not be personally pleasurable but are required for reasons of state.

Fianna Fáil would be wise to engage with all prepared to talk to it about shared policy objectives. Ultimately what matters in the short-term is sound policy. There is only one definite political imperative in 2016 and possibly another.

The certain imperative is Budget 2017 next November. The other will arise on June 24 if Britain votes for Brexit the previous day.

In case of the latter, Ireland will face a crisis that must be mediated through complex EU negotiations in which we may have influence but no ultimate control. The terms of a British exit would be imperative for us. For now that is hypothetical. If it arises, a government should be able to rely on the support of a constructive opposition, including Fianna Fáil.

In relation to the self-serving insistence from Sinn Féin and Labour that Fianna Fáil should, unlike them, trade in its mandate to facilitate their selfish political interests and coalesce with Fine Gael, there is a ready-reckoner.

Micheál Martin can test their credentials by inviting them to put forward their proposals for government with a view to forming a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin-Labour and perhaps Social Democrat-coalition supported by Independents. Less than serious engagement would immediately expose the cynicism of their posturing. It puts responsibility back where it belongs, on the floor of the Dáil.

Our narrow, inadequate experience of a legislature being the fulcrum of government instead of its powerless creature leaves us unprepared to grasp the opportunity presented.

Fianna Fáil and others if they wish, can facilitate Enda Kenny forming another government. What is required would be straightforward but transformative. The legislature would consider bills in committee on a case-by-case basis.

A Fine Gael minority government would be obliged to ensure it had a majority, whether with Fianna Fáil support or otherwise, for its specific proposals. On the absolutely imperative issue of a budget for next year, the government can simply do what it said it would do in the past and genuinely overhaul the budgetary process.

An immediate start would be for a new Oireachtas Finance Committee to receive proposals from government, and, critically, evidence from Department of Finance officials, on what truthfully the fiscal room for manoeuvre is. On that basis, government would propose overall budgetary parameters months in advance.

Individual ministers would present detailed departmental budgets for forensic examination in advance to Dáil committees. It is simply the implementation of what was promised but remains undelivered. Fine Gael in government could deliver a budget, with opposition agreement, based on a limited number of principles.

Far from being chaos, the process would be transformative accountability. The only obvious loser would the institutional power of senior civil service in the departments of Finance and Public Expenditure. But that’s democracy.

The obligation on government to clarify its intentions in advance and treat with the opposition, or at least the main opposition party, ensures that by standing a legislative circle — as distinct from coalition — it operates as a firing squad for the worst promises of both. This can only be in the national interest. External association was the innovation of Éamon de Valera.

The people have elected a Dáil which they expect to govern for a reasonable period. They have not given an increased mandate to Fianna Fáil to replicate the demoralising opportunism of Labour in 2011. As with all change, what is proposed is challenging. Looked at in light of international experience, it is simply Ireland playing catch-up.