A sense of déjà vu in Ukraine stand-off

The repetitive nature of history is as obvious as our unfortunate inability to break free from the almost predictable cycle of threat and counter threat, calamity and disaster. Some threats fade before wars break out, others, tragically, do not.

This week’s Nato summit in Cardiff, a wonderful combination of extravagance and impotence, was free to reach any conclusion it chose. But how those conclusions might force a resolution of the crisis, a crisis that may become a war, in Ukraine, is an open but ever more pressing question. It is difficult to exaggerate how very high the stakes are, especially as the options available if diplomacy fails are so terribly limited.

The same doubt exists about how those conclusions might secure today’s moment of peace in Gaza, a moment already threatened by another round of Israeli land thefts. Doubt also surrounds how those Cardiff conclusions might limit, much less end, the appalling terror campaigns waged by the butchering mobs that comprise the Islamic State. The only certainty — and it is a tragic certainty — is that no matter which side we are on, there is an unquestionable link between the number of boots on the ground, soldiers or tanks on the streets, and the ability to effectively influence events.