Britain’s departure from the EU would be a nightmare for Ireland
The prospect of Britain leaving the EU should be treated as very real and Ireland has to examine its contingency plans urgently, even if the British vote does not happen until 2017.
If Britain goes can we stay in? And if we stay in how will we cope, given that Britain is our largest trading partner and the biggest external investor in Ireland? It is the only country with which we share a common language and a land border. We are close culturally; one-in-six British people is of Irish descent. The visit of Queen Elizabeth in May 2011 did much to bury old prejudices and repair old wounds. The British are our closest friends in the EU.
British Prime Minister David Cameron potentially has opened a political Pandora’s Box with his promise of a referendum to the British people on EU membership. It has been presented rather simplistically by some as a simple “in-out” referendum, partly due to the language used by Cameron himself. But there are many caveats to what Cameron has proposed. He has to be re-elected first — which will be hard — and he has to renegotiate the terms of British membership of the EU before putting membership to a vote. That’ll be far harder.
On balance it appears Britain would be worse off economically should it leave the EU (and the same reasons would apply to us if we were ever to contemplate such a move). It would no longer be as attractive a location for multinational investment if it was outside one of the world’s richest trading blocks. Trading opportunities might be diminished. The position of the City of London as one of the world’s most important financial centres might be threatened. Why risk all of that?
But public sentiment is not always dictated by “it’s the economy, stupid”. Rightly or wrongly many British people believe too many powers have been ceded to Europe. It is too easy to characterise critics of the EU as “fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists”, as heard on BBC Newsnight on Wednesday evening. Many of the fears may have been exaggerated, sometimes because they have been whipped up by jingoistic and xenophobic sections of the media, but there is some validity to many of the criticisms made of the EU. Cameron may have touched a nerve when he said when it came to employment, social and environmental legislation “Europe has gone far too far”. There are many in Ireland who would add to that list. While there has been something of a knee-jerk reaction to Cameron’s speech it had elements that demand consideration. “The biggest danger to the European Union comes not from those who advocate change, but from those who denounce new thinking as heresy,” he said.
Cameron is right to worry that the response to the eurozone debt crisis is a range of measures that made things worse and which may discriminate against the 10 EU member states who had the good sense not to enter the currency in the first place. His comment about the EU being seen as something that does things to people rather than acting on their behalf should strike a chord in Ireland. We should at least debate his point that Europe needs less, not more, integration.
Cameron has reacted to the political impact of the rising anti-EU sentiment, much of it to the benefit of the UK Independence Party which has been rising in support in the polls as it has fostered this mood. While UKIP will not win Tory seats in the next British general election, expected in 2015, it might take sufficient votes from the Conservatives in many of the country’s single seat constituencies to allow Labour or the Lib Democrats benefit. This fear, as much as genuine concerns with EU influence over UK affairs, has prompted much of the eurosceptic talk among Tory backbenchers.
So Cameron has engaged in what he hopes will be a cleaver political feint. It may be a clever one if it is enough help him regain power. If so, all he then has to do is renegotiate the terms of British membership of the EU and bring that to his electorate with a recommendation that they vote yes to remaining in that union. That bit is much easier said than done. It could be his undoing.
European votes in this country have had a tendency to go as the voters wanted, not the politicians (in the first instance anyway before the fear of God was imparted and voters were made to vote again to get the “right” result). There is a growing anti-EU sentiment, leading some to be dubbed “little Englanders”, fuelled by a European antagonistic media: the front-page headline of the UK edition of the Daily Mail yesterday for example heralded the possible calling of the referendum as just the first step and urged Cameron to push through to get the UK out of Europe. This ignored the fact that Cameron said he wants to stay within the EU, that he would campaign for Britain to stay in the EU “with all my heart and soul”. He will be put under further pressure to switch sides.
But there’s a catch. Cameron has promised a simple “in or out” referendum but only after he has renegotiated Britain’s position within the EU. That is the very tricky bit that may be beyond him. It does not seem possible. The same rules apply to everyone. There are no opt-outs once a country is in (unless a country negotiates some on the way in, such as the rules on passport presentation, which are different for Britain and, by extension, Ireland).
THE Germans are making sounds about negotiation but others, particularly the French, are scathing about his intentions. What Cameron is seeking would mean treaty change in effect, for all. Treaty change that weakens the overriding stated aim for greater integration is not going to be accepted by other countries. But he did not spell out what powers he would like to see the UK take back as part of a new settlement, or what would happen if the negotiations did not go his way. Cameron will not be able to renegotiate the treaties merely to suit the British. What changes for one will have to change for all. Can Cameron then hold his referendum without treaty change without in turn handing victory to the ‘no’ side?
Cameron is under pressure from the US to stay within the EU, but he is under greater pressure at home. He has to worry about trailing Labour in opinion polls at a time when his ill-suited coalition is facing a possible triple dip recession and is pushing through unpopular public spending cuts to reduce a large budget deficit.
Britain’s exit from the EU would potentially be a nightmare for Ireland, not just for economic reasons but because of border controls too. Our membership of the euro makes our exit almost impossible, even if it was desirable (which it is not). But that doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t support Cameron’s efforts to change things.
Meanwhile, disregard any Irish politicians who tell you a British exit is impossible. Those will be the same Irish politicians who said it was inevitable that Britain would join the euro after we did, that it would be impossible for the UK to stay out. Well stay out it did, and damn glad the British are about it. The UK will do what it thinks suits it best. Cutting off the nose to spite the face happens, even at this level.
*The Last Word with Matt Cooper is broadcast on 100-102 Today FM, Monday to Friday, 4.30pm to 7pm
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