Optimism in 2013 - Self-belief is our path to recovery

In his 1936 book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money back-in-fashion economist John Maynard Keynes used the phrase “animal spirits” to describe the emotions that shape human behaviour and the feelings that can be measured in terms of consumer confidence.

Keynes believed that “there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than mathematical expectations, whether moral or hedonistic or economic”.

In other words, we sometimes have to think with our hearts, or to move it closer to the vernacular, we sometimes have to give it a lash despite overwhelming evidence that we might just be better advised to run away and wait to fight another day.

Keynes recognised that we, for no particular reason, become optimistic when a less enthusiastic position might be more rational. This emotional decision, or more properly an indefinable human survival reflex, is more often than not an agent for great, positive change.

The great All Black forward turned TV commentator Murray Mexted coined a different phrase to describe the phenomena. He, when the ebb and flow of a game changes and the advantage shifts from one team to the other, calls it “a shift of psychic energy”. Nothing obvious changes but one team finds within itself the belief that allows it prevail. Though indefinable, the shift has real substance and very real consequences.

As the country begins to better understand how Budget 2013, layered on top of multi-billion private bank debt, will affect us it may seem strange to suggest that optimism is the best response. It is certainly better — and far more empowering — than most of the alternatives. Nevertheless, it would be cheerleading of the most vacuous, patronising kind to pretend that 2013 will not, for far, far too many people, be a year of struggle and worry. The problems faced by hundreds of thousands of people, especially those who want work but cannot find it, cannot be underestimated. Neither can the difficulties faced by those whose state supports have been cut, especially those whose lives are dom-inated by illness. Neither can the stress eating at young families beaten down by mortgage and living in terror — an entirely apt word — of losing their jobs.

But how to respond to these unexpected and very unwelcome difficulties? How do we use our talents, energies and proven resilience to try to turn the “animal spirits” of Ireland around?

A good place to start might be to have a more realistic appraisal of what the Government can do. Maybe we should review what a deeply-indebted country and a Government presiding over a small, bankrupt economy, susceptible to the shifting sands of international markets can do. Maybe we’d all sleep better at night if we had a more realistic expectation of how much politicians can really do to change our world.

Government can provide services, facilities, some of the supports needed, or more often expected, today but it cannot do the heavy lifting invariably needed to change lives in a profound way. That is, as it ever was, down to individuals or small groups of people working together. The majority of Irish people have shown time and time again, especially abroad, that they can do this successfully and they — we — will do so again.

What the Government can best do is help create an atmosphere, a setting of possibility and hope. To help do this they can start to make the tattered belief that we are all in this together even moderately believable.

One of the Government’s greatest obligations at a time like this is to protect the vulnerable and ensure that social equity is at the very heart of every measure they are obliged to impose on a society grown far too dependent on other people’s money.

They are also obliged to be more than proactive in showing that honesty is a quality this society wants to see front, centre and at the very heart of public affairs. To achieve these objectives all Enda Kenny’s Government has to do is to fearlessly implement the reform programme it was elected to lead. It must too, and this has nothing to do with heads on plates, finally if belatedly, bring those whose recklessness destroyed our economy to book.

It has the mandate to do these relatively simple things, all it needs is the courage and the determination to make them happen. If they do, then our well-tested and proven “animal spirits” will, despite the seemingly insurmountable difficulties, do the rest. Because, after all, optimism is no more than having faith in yourself, your plans and your ability to realise them. Nothing more, nothing less, nothing we can’t do or haven’t done before. Have a happy and optimistic 2013.