Second referendum unlikely if Hollande rules France

The likelihood of Ireland having to hold a second referendum on the fiscal treaty has been cut by the announcement the man tipped to be the next French president will seek an addition to the document rather than reopen it.

Just weeks after the Irish vote, François Hollande, if elected, is expected to ask EU leaders at their end-of-June summit to acknowledge that growth-boosting measures are needed to balance the austerity written in to the treaty.

The idea is fast gaining currency, with the ECB president, Mario Draghi, telling the European Parliament: “We have to go back and make it a growth compact. That is very, very important.”

This follows pressure from a number of countries, including the Netherlands, to allow governments more time to get their spending under control, and to ease up on cutting budgets and raising taxes.

The Government has denied that any changes the French could make to the treaty would require a second vote. It will be relieved with reports from Mr Hollande’s camp in Paris that he does not intend to reopen the treaty, but to add clauses on growth and jobs.

Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore said this was in keeping with the Government’s strategy. “He is looking for a growth and jobs strategy and we will build on that, he can do that and it will not require a change to the treaty. It will be done separately; it is very much in the space we are in.”

France is expected to wait until after June, when the general election is held, to ratify the treaty, but it would not pass in the assembly in its current form. Mr Hollande’s policy chief, Michel Sapin, told the Financial Times they wanted a treaty “that imposes budget discipline but which at the same time, possibly by legal means ... creates not words but tools to push growth across Europe and in each country.”