Race for the Áras - Martin’s leadership is damaged

IT is almost impossible to believe that any previous leader of Fianna Fáil would have publicly offered the party’s support to a potential candidate for the presidency without establishing that the individual was fully committed to the idea.

The potential for humiliation would be far too great, especially if the person being encouraged was neither a politician nor a member of Fianna Fáil.

That scenario would carry too much potential to provoke destablising discontent within the party, especially as some very senior Fianna Fáil figures have repeatedly expressed an interest in contesting the election on behalf of the party.

Weekend mutterings from some TDs and senators about Mr Martin’s leadership being damaged by the Byrne fiasco may be the first flutterings of that unhappiness. The pantomime will not end Mr Martin’s leadership but the affair will be filed away and added to the charge sheet when the inevitable leadership challenge eventually materialises.

No matter what spin Mr Martin’s office might offer, he made a very public error of judgement that will cast a shadow over his leadership. It will provoke antipathy and resentment among colleagues who are probably entitled to believe that they should be allowed to challenge for the party’s nomination in the Áras race.

The not entirely unsurprising declaration from Gay Byrne that he “did not have the stomach for the campaign” has damaged Mr Martin considerably.

More used to being kingmakers than supplicants, Fianna Fáil leaders have always kept a very tight rein on these matters. Contrast Mr Martin’s performance to that of Bertie Ahern, who managed to circumvent the great presidential ambitions of his predecessor, Albert Reynolds, and have Mary McAleese nominated as his party’s candidate 14 years ago. Where Mr Ahern was ruthless and utterly focussed, Mr Martin was wildly optimistic and opportunist. He was also far less respectful of his party’s traditions and colleagues with presidential ambitions than he should have been.

It is unfair to suggest that Mr Martin’s hand is as strong as Mr Ahern’s was but this is the second public humiliation he has had to endure since becoming party leader just some months ago. His failure to have his preferred Senate candidates elected was a minor embarrassment but an embarrassment nonetheless.

Just as Fine Gael’s leadership discovered when it tried to engineer a party nomination for Pat Cox, these matters can go terribly wrong and cause considerable embarrassment.

David Norris was the first casualty of this election but we now have a situation where the candidates representing the two main political parties — if Fianna Fáil eventually run one under their flag — cannot claim that they were the first choice of their party leadership. This hardly reflects well on the management and leadership skills of these organisations. Not quite GUBU territory yet but we’re getting there.