The Arab revolts - Suppression won’t save autocracies

ANYONE who has followed the revolutions across North Africa will find the barely-concealed menace in the statement from Saif al-Islam, one of Muammar Gaddafi’s sons, that “everything will be over in 48 hours”, more than a little chilling.

Despite contradictory reports, it seems that as every hour passes the rebels’ situation worsens and the dictator’s position improves. Should Gaddafi reassert control, his brave opponents face a very grim prospect. It would not be, as our own aspirant revolutionaries might say, a relationship of equals.

The rebels’ dreadful fate becomes more and more likely every hour that passes without foreign intervention. Even if international agreement could be reached on the next steps and that intervention was made there is no guarantee that it would be successful.

The sense of foreboding was increased in New York when anti-Gaddafi Libyan diplomat, Ibrahim Dabbashi, warned that foreign powers had 10 hours to act.

“We think that... in the coming hours, we will see a real genocide in Ajdabiyah if the international community does not move quickly and prevent him from attacking it with a large force,” he predicted.

Yet, it is entirely possible and maybe more than likely that these people will be left to their fate. American inaction and justified reluctance hints ever more strongly at that position though 11th-hour talks about air strikes are ongoing. Even if air power was used against Gaddafi, it is doubtful it could have a real and lasting impact. Even French efforts at the UN may be too late to turn the tide.

The more aggressive responses from other rulers in the region shows they have learnt well from Gaddafi about using force to quell opposition. This makes the idea of foreign intervention even more difficult.

Though the change in Egypt seems secure, if not yet copper-fastened, the copycat revolts amongst its neighbours are being put down in the old-fashioned way. Power is imposing its will and those without an army are silenced.

Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa is supported by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman under the umbrella of the anti-democratic and ultra-conservative Gulf Co-operation Council. This support has meant the Pearl Roundabout revolt has been crushed and not without the loss of life. This response has been mirrored across the region.

In recent days Syrian security forces attacked a peaceful protest in Damascus. In Yemen security forces yesterday opened fire on protesters demanding President Ali Abdullah Saleh resign after 32 years in power.

The intervention of the Gulf Co-operation Council does not auger well for the short or medium term as it shows these autocracies made powerful by our insatiable demand for oil are prepared to kill their own citizens to preserve their position and privilege.

They may use force to crush revolts today but, like nearly all of history’s forgotten dynasties, they will not be able to do it forever.