Serious soul searching needed for FF to escape the political wilderness

GREATEST misnomer of the election was of any outright winner.

Unlike the Spring Tide of 1992 or Fitzgerald crusade in 1981/2, on this occasion all opposition parties scored historic successes. FG, Labour, and SF achieved unprecedented heights, while random independents and left-wing groups reaped whirlwind victories. No single strategy gained the day. This was a default election, whereby almost half a million voters turned on Fianna Fáil. The magnitude of FF losses was the only singular story of election counts.

FF endured an earthquake. The fault lines ended up with no Dáil representation in the counties of Longford, Meath, Wicklow, Carlow, Kildare, Louth, Kerry, Tipperary, Waterford, Monaghan, Roscommon, Sligo and Leitrim. City representation in regional urban centres of Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Waterford and Galway is virtually a wasteland of FF councillors and TDs. They face the absence of a frontline constituency service of clientelism across the country. Constituents with problems will be knocking on other politicians’ doors for help, thereby consolidating their positions. Party support maintained on greasing wheels is no longer possible. FF’s core function and attraction — being in government — is redundant.

We were told FF would outperform opinion polls on a real ballot paper with strong public representatives. Let’s examine their prime representatives, by comparing their tally last week with 2007: Barry Andrews 8,587/3,542; Áine Brady 11,245/4,777; Sean Power 8694/3,793; Mary Coughlan 10,530/4,956; Margaret Conlon 9,303/4,658. Above cases exclude constituency redraws or altered FF ticket sizes. It compares like with like. The FF brand was so toxic, it defied any individual’s work rate.

Can FF recover? Full dosages of reality have still not been absorbed. They must accept full blame themselves — not Lehmans, Regulators, developers, bankers or public. They have got to purge the “L’Oréal set” (because they’re worth it). These are the culprits who ruined Fianna Fáil. Banking poster boys are Seanie Fitzpatrick and Michael Fingleton. Developer hit list includes Liam Carroll, Bernard McNamara and Sean Dunne. The L’Oréal set comprises those who ruled for 13 years continuously. The key cohort is Bertie Ahern, Brian Cowen, Dermot Ahern, Noel Dempsey and Mícheál Martin. Co-conspirators are Charlie McCreevy, Mary Harney, Mary Coughlan, Éamon Ó Cuív, Martin Cullen and Dick Roche. All have no escape as political authors of boom to bust.

Excessive tenure of office transformed their personalities. Characteristics included insufferable arrogance, irresponsible budgeting, indifference to external advice, contempt for criticism and remoteness from ordinary people. Their swagger matched their bluster. The ultimate iconic moment was Noel Dempsey and Dermot Ahern shaking their heads in absolute denial about the EU/IMF receivership. It wasn’t true just because they said so. Skulking away with mega payouts, they paid no price last Friday, leaving hapless volunteers to take the flak. FF foot soldiers must publicly excoriate them. A Truth Commission or Nuremburg Trial equivalent needs to convict them. Their sullied reputation casts an indelible stain on FF.

Historians compare FF’s predicament to that of FG in 2002, pointing to Enda Kenny’s FG revival as the modus operandi for electoral recovery. This analogy is facile and inaccurate. FG suffered a 5.4% reverse for very tangible and explicit reasons. Disaffected FG voters supported Progressive Democrats. When they exited, Fine Gael recovered this cohort of voters and seats. FG brand was perceived as weak, irrelevant and ineffective. Party image was damaged through years of infighting, leadership heaves and changes. The brand was never toxic. The 1994-1997 Rainbow Government was deemed to be economically competent and a coherent coalition.

FG had no tribunal tribulations, decade of cronyism, Anglo or IMF nightmares. It is utterly unrealistic to imagine the depths of anger against Fianna Fáil will readily dissipate.

FF has to face fundamental changes in Irish politics. Traditional loyalty, based on generations of civil war allegiances, is diluted every decade. Younger voters increasingly disregard how parents and grandparents voted. The core republican identity of Fianna Fáil is dated. The Belfast Agreement and subsequent constitutional amendments changed southern perspectives on Northern politics permanently. These developments resulted in two irreversible trends. Firstly, a socio-economic divide of voting patterns, with discernible breakdowns along class lines. Some 42% of the electorate voted for left wing politicians. Secondly, permanent fragmentation and reconstruction of the two and a half party system.

Political evolution means FF can’t rely on past formulas for future success. FF is the quintessential “catch all” party. It seeks to simultaneously appeal to: millionaire developer and penniless pensioner; farmer and townie, public servant and private sector worker; gaelgóir and emigrant. The wraparound blanket of charm rhetoric includes community, opportunity, tradition, culture and Irishness. “Catch all” could catch nothing, due to a lack of definition. It’s impossible to fudge stances on abortion, gay marriage and adoption, blood sports and big versus small government. Voters need to know what it says on the tin — not platitudes from dynasties.

Political spin doctors and party strategists will prescribe formulas for FF’s rejuvenation. These include endless laps of the rubber chicken circuit for the party leader, election of Senators to regain seats and a focus to grow the base of 218 in the 2014 local elections. Expect Mícheál Martin to announce initiatives to drive new membership of Ógra Fianna Fáil and reinvent a new role for women in the party. Membership fundraising draws will seek to replace corporate donations and loss of €3 million in state funding.

Key attention will be on those 10 constituencies where they were less than 2,000 votes can take the last seat back. They will emphasise they still attracted 387,000 votes last Saturday. Logistical manoeuvres are fine and dandy. They lack one essential ingredient — an answer to “What does Fianna Fáil stand for?” Narrative of non committal positions is meaningless. Sinn Féin, People Before Profit and ULA stand against the rich and for the poor. They advocate more tax and better public services. Fine Gael articulates a private sector ethos aimed at coping classes, with substantial support from farmers, self-employed and professionals. FF had an own label brand that worked.

Now, there’s a product recall after contamination. FF won’t recover until it jettisons the L’Oréal set and stakes out its core beliefs. Save us bland blather, because people have turned off glib superficiality.

An essential political truism is popularity directly matches peoples’ prosperity. As a FG/Labour government inflicts stealth taxes and public service retrenchment, their poll ratings will inevitably wane. The rising tide of opportunity can lift opposition prospects. Medium term, the economy may recover by 2016. Old adage “governments lose elections, oppositions don’t win them” is not enough to assure FF rather than Sinn Féin glory. An Ógra generation leader and clear beliefs are the optimum route to another success summit.